It must be true, I saw it on the news.
Posted on 07/02/2016 12:23:10 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Luzerne County is one of seven counties in seven battleground states that can be viewed as bellwethers in presidential elections, according to a consulting firm that last month conducted a poll putting Donald Trump ahead by 17 percentage points in the county.
The firm, Axiom Strategies, is run by Jeff Roe, who ran Ted Cruz’s Republican presidential campaign. It polled Luzerne County voters June 3 through June 5.
The poll found 51 percent supporting Trump, 34 percent backing Democrat Hillary Clinton, 4 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 5 percent for someone else and 6 percent undecided.
Wilkes University political science professor Thomas Baldino said he’s skeptical of the poll results and also doesn’t think Luzerne County is a bellwether county for Pennsylvania because the county’s percentage of black residents is much smaller than the state’s percentage. The state total is 11.7 percent, compared to only 5.1 percent in Luzerne County, according to U.S. Census data.
Axiom says Luzerne County and the six other counties — Watauga County, N.C.; Sandusky County, Ohio; Washoe County, Nev.; Jefferson County, Colo.; Loudoun County, Va.; and Hillsborough County, Fla. — have reflected the overall statewide result in presidential elections since 2000 within a few percentage points.
President Barack Obama won the statewide and Luzerne County vote in 2008 and 2012. His vote percentage was 52 percent in the county in 2008. It was 55 percent statewide in 2008 — only one point higher than his Luzerne County percentage.
The last time the presidential candidate with the most votes in Pennsylvania did not win the Luzerne County vote was 1932. Franklin D. Roosevelt won the national election and the Luzerne County vote, but Herbert Hoover won Pennsylvania.
The last time a Republican presidential candidate won the Luzerne County vote was 1988. George H.W. Bush won Pennsylvania and the Luzerne County vote.
If the Axiom poll is accurate, Luzerne County preferences do not appear to be similar to statewide preferences for this election. Public Policy Polling released a statewide survey Tuesday showing 46 percent supporting Clinton and 42 percent for Trump.
According to the Axiom poll of Luzerne County voters, Trump’s favorability ratings were 50 percent positive to 39 percent negative. Clinton was 37 percent positive to 57 percent negative.
Baldino questioned the poll’s methodology and was skeptical that the poll on Trump’s favorability was accurate. National polls consistently have shown unfavorability for both Trump and Clinton is more than 50 percent.
A Quinnipiac University poll of Pennsylvania voters from June 21 show Clinton leads 42 percent to 41 percent. State voters in that poll gave Clinton a negative 41 to 56 percent favorability rating and Trump a negative 35 to 60 percent rating.
Information about the Axiom poll — such as the methodology, sample size and margin of error — did not appear to be noted online. A company representative did not reply to attempts for comment.
A Politico article from June 14 said the Axiom county polls used “a combination of 20 percent live calls and 80 percent automated calls, a weighting that tilts toward a methodology that hasn’t been totally reliable.” Each poll relied on sample sizes that varied widely, from 653 likely votes in North Carolina to nearly 1,700 in Nevada, Politico reported.
Baldino said Clinton should win Luzerne County if Democrats who voted for Bernie Sanders in the April 26 primary election support Clinton against Trump.
Clinton beat Sanders in Luzerne County 20,542 votes to 18,543 votes.
Trump received 28,680 primary votes — 77 percent of 37,223 total Republican primary votes in Luzerne County. It was his best county in the state.
Independents and voters with other parties could not vote in the presidential primary elections. Of the 196,388 voters registered in Luzerne County for the primary, 54 percent were Democrats and 35 percent were Republicans.
If it is not close, they cannot cheat.
Bttt
This is much more realistic than those phony “neck and neck” push polls.
Philly already has that covered.
Landslide.
It must be true, I saw it on the news.
Let’s hope it is true. Mrs. Bill will be throwing lamps again if so.
they did last time, we'll see..
In 59 Philadelphia voting divisions, Mitt Romney got zero votes
lol
The Cong.Barletta came out early for Trump. N.E. Pa. Is infected with a lot of out of state democratic garbage!
The small town folks of Luzerne don’t worry about telling a pollster they are supporting Trump - thus the difference between the County’s numbers and PPP’s statewide numbers.
They will just cheat more.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are the key states to Trump winning.
The Rebel Alliance is out there:
They are mean
They are mad as hell
and they a not going to take it anymore.
Get on board the Trump Train.....
freegards
LEX
I’m afraid none of these are winnable states because of Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Detroit.
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