Posted on 10/28/2007 6:32:12 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Presidential hopeful Fred Thompson has soared to a nearly 2-to-1 lead over his closest Republican rival in the latest statewide poll.
In survey results announced Wednesday by Strategic Vision, the former U.S. senator from Tennessee led Rudy Giuliani, 39 percent to 20 percent.
Thompson added 4 percentage points to the advantage he enjoyed over the former New York mayor in a Strategic Vision poll taken last month.
All the other Republican candidates are in single digits.
Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York widened her lead over U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois in the Democratic campaign.
Clinton led Obama, 40 percent to 27 percent.
Former North Carolina senator John Edwards was a distant third at 11 percent. No other Democrat had more than 5 percent.
Clinton's increasing strength in Georgia reflects a trend demonstrated by national polls and surveys in other states.
In Georgia, Clinton is outpolling Obama even among his fellow African-Americans, said David E. Johnson, chief executive officer of Strategic Vision.
Thompson's dominance in the Peach State stands out against his numbers in other states, which have been mostly flat in recent weeks.
"Much of this can be attributed to former supporters of Newt Gingrich going for Thompson, now that Gingrich is officially out of the race," Johnson said.
Gingrich, a Georgian and a former U.S. House speaker, was backed by 9 percent of the Republicans surveyed by Strategic Vision in September.
University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock speculated that much of Thompson's support might be coming from north Georgia.
He's likely to be especially well-known there, Bullock said, because of exposure in the Chattanooga media market, based in the candidate's home state.
Johnson confirmed that Thompson's support was strongest in north Georgia and in southern Georgia, including Savannah.
Giuliani, he said, did relatively well in the Atlanta metropolitan area.
Many Chatham County elected officials, including all of the area's GOP state legislators, have endorsed Thompson.
Johnson cited the numbers of undecided voters - 13 percent of the Republicans and 12 percent of the Democrats.
That's "fairly high" this close to primary elections that begin in January and suggests that the numbers are still subject to change, he said.
Bullock restated what many others have said: Georgia's Feb. 5 primary election might not matter much.
In both parties, he said, it's at least possible that one of the candidates, especially Clinton, may build up unstoppable momentum in earlier contests.
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LATEST statewide STRATEGIC VISION POLL*
Republicans
Fred Thompson, 39 percent
Rudy Giuliani, 20 percent
John McCain, 9 percent
Mike Huckabee, 7 percent
Mitt Romney, 6 percent
Ron Paul, 3 percent
Tom Tancredo, 2 percent
Duncan Hunter, 1 percent
Undecided, 13 percent
Democrats
Hillary Clinton, 40 percent
Barack Obama, 27 percent
John Edwards, 11 percent
Bill Richardson, 5 percent
Joseph Biden, 3 percent
Chris Dodd, 1 percent
Dennis Kucinich, 1 percent
Undecided, 12 percent
* Oct. 19-21 survey that included 368 Republicans voters and 328 Democrats, all considered "likely voters." Margin of error for those groups, plus or minus 6.5 percent.
Source: Strategic Vision
Mitt will have the Iowa, NH momentum. Rudy should have a strong NH, Florida win, and other big states to follow.
Even a solid middle of the road win in all of the states is good for McCain because he will have the staying power, so Fred must have a very, very strong showing in SC to keep it going.
Am I right that Georgia also splits their delegates more than others? Or am I thinking of one of the other southern states that Fred is hanging his hat on.
Uh, that goes for your candidate Jiuliette as well, as no one has ever lost SC's primary and gone on to win the GOP nomination for president.
1980 IOWA - GHWB over Reagan.1988 IOWA - Bob Dole over Pat Robertson. GHWB 3rd.
1996 NH - Pat Buchanan over Bob Dole.
2000 NH - John McCain over GWB.
“Umm, honesty? For Fred to ONLY have a 19 point lead over a northeasterner in Georgia is pretty sad.”
Maybe you don’t understand the South very well. And it’s still an eight man field. 41% of the vote is scattered among the others and undecided. 39% to 20% is a huge lead, twice the support of Giuliani. Can you show us states where Giuliani doubles the support of the #2.
“So I keep asking, where will Fred get his delegates?”
People also need to start asking: Where will Rudy get his electoral votes in November of 2008 if he’s the nominee. The fantasy of all these blue states he’ll win is more likely to be a reality of all the close red states he stands to lose.
Wow. That reminds me of a PBS global warming special this past spring where the very first sentence was, "The output of the sun is a constant." I knew I didn't need to watch further.
Interesting post and thread. Thanks to all.
On Fox there were two dildoes yapping about Romney and Guiliani.... and of course Huckabee....they were the ONLY ones in the "hunt" for the Republican nomination.
Kewl....Fox's political analysts now bend over for the lib propaganda just like CNNABCCBSNBCMSNBCMOUSE.
Oh and for the Rudy lurkers.... yeah, I'll take Hillary. I made a ton of money last time the "boy" President ruled.
Just short the pharmaceutical stocks and take that money and reinvest it after 1-2 years into the debris thats left.
TON of money. The democrat party won't do d#ck as far as nationalizing health care....cause it's already happened.
But.... He has no fire in his belly.
bump
At some point, someone has to present any scenario that has Fred winning a big bunch of delegates without CA, FL, CT, NJ, PA, IA, and NH. I don't see where they come from---but even if he wins, say, NC, GA, AL, AZ, Rudy will still be winning some and adding to those huge delegate counts he already has. There is one bonus for Fred if he wins a bunch of "red" states vs. CT and NY and CA, which is the "super delegates" are extra delegates awarded to states that went Republican in the last presidential election.
However---and this should really concern you---in most of these states, including OH, NM, and even many deep red states like KA and NC, Rudy does much better than Fred vs. Hillary. He's better in OH, FL, NM, WI, and WA, while pretty close to what Fred pulls vs. Hillary in NC, KS, and VA. The only state where Rudy does not poll as well as Fred vs. Hillary is KY. Well, I'll take OH, FL, NM in a tradeoff vs. KY any day.
And don't give me this "don't understand the south." I lived there for many years, playing a circuit from NO to Pascagoula to Baton Rouge to Tampa. What perhaps you don't understand is that the south is changing and isn't nearly as "red" as it used to be, esp. in FL, VA, and NC.
Talk about "an inconvenient truth."
The strangest thing about McCain is that despite how well he does in state polls, he still sucks in the national polling. Go figure.
Nice that you profit off the misfortunes of the country. Sorry, I won’t subject my children to Hillary. I’ll vote Rudy, Fred, Mitt, anyone except Hillary.
Heartbreaking as it may be for his partisans, Mitt isn’t very appealing to real voters. Human beings don’t much like androids. Predicting that he will rise above the pack in Iowa because he is strong in the polls there after months of unanswered advertising is just silly. He is a badly flawed candidate and the smart money says he’ll sink like a stone when the real voting starts. He may even be third in Iowa behind Thompson and Huckabee (in any order).
If, as I anticipate, Mitt gets creamed in Iowa his candidacy is over. He can’t recover in New Hampshire and he won’t recover anywhere else. If, as is quite likely, Thompson wins Iowa, South Carolina and Florida the game is over and everyone else can go home. If Huckabee wins Iowa and Thompson is second, more or less the same result follows. Huckabee can’t capitalize on an Iowa win. He hasn’t got the money or the ideological orientation to make a serious run.
If Mitt can win Iowa he will be a serious candidate. If he can’t he’s toast. I’m betting he can’t. We shall see.
Quit wasting our time with your irresponsible support of this doomed candidate please.
(DO I REALLY NEED AN /S TAG)
He’s just so lazy, that he’s kicking Rudy’s butt down here.
We need more of his kind of “lazy” in this country, to being a top prosecutor who took down a crooked governor, to the U.S. Senate and a very successful acting career (basically playing himself, I might add).
He’s also the kind of “lazy” who thinks about what it is the Federal Gov’t should, and more importantly, should *not*, be doing.
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