11-12-07 FR Poll Discussion: Who should pro-life conservatives rally for? Hunter? Romney? Thompson?

Free Republic ^ | Monday, November 12, 2007

[Momaw Nadon]

(11/12) Three way runoff: Which one of the following candidates should pro-life conservatives rally behind to defeat the liberal abortionists Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton?

(A) Duncan Hunter

(B) Mitt Romney

(C) Fred Thompson

[RasterMaster]

That was from Phyllis Shaffley. I posted my list here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1924829/posts?page=125#125

I can’t speak for Phyllis, but conservatives should include WOT in any “litmus tests” for choosing a candidate:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b81K03dMc98

[deport]

Winning on the national level maybe a hypothetical to you but reality says that it takes name recognition and above all the ability to bring the people to your campaign. That includes independents, moderates, cross overs, etc.

I have no reason to offer as to why name recognition is what it is. But take a look at the polling over the last year or so and see who are the winners and see who hasn’t moved up to be contenders from day one. That is partially name recognition mixed with some ability to run a national campaign which attracts well known leaders and funding.

A little polling history of this cycle:
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08rep.htm

Reality will start to settle in 50 days from now no matter who the eventual nominee becomes.

[Kevmo]

I have no reason to offer as to why name recognition is what it is.
***That’s because choosing a candidate based upon name recognition is a failing strategy. Ask Bob Dole.

Hunter’s candidacy attracts independents, moderates, crossovers, blue-collar democrats, and others.

Here, go back and read post #14. Thompson’s campaign is showing signs of imploding. Is it a wise move to jump on a bandwagon that’s about to implode, or one that is slowly gaining traction?

Before we get the Fred followers saying that Duncan isn’t electable and is not gaining traction, here’s the latest evidence.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

[Eastbound]

Fred was mis-represented on what he said about illegals. He said that any plan towards citinzhip for illegals should not be unfair to legal immigrants who are standing in line.

So you can't scratch Fred off the list for that.

[deport]

***That’s because choosing a candidate based upon name recognition is a failing strategy. Ask Bob Dole.

Hunter’s candidacy attracts independents, moderates, crossovers, blue-collar democrats, and others.

---

Yep Hunter is really moving up the polling list with his almost year on the trail..... I can see it now 50 days hence, ‘Hunter wins Iowa’ next comes NH then SC..... http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Hunter is a good conservative but not the one to be chosen this cycle, imo. http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08rep.htm

[Kevmo]

You’re relying on polls that are more than a year out from the election, notoriously unreliable. And I’m relying on Intrade results, which are known for being more reliable than that.

Why did your candidate lose 30 points at Intrade? Because he has so much charm?

[deport]

You’re relying on polls that are more than a year out from the election, notoriously unreliable. And I’m relying on Intrade results, which are known for being more reliable than that.

---

A year out...... lol.

The voting/caucusing begins in 50 days to select the nominee to be in the race a year out. The polls I’ve linked aren’t about a year out but rather something much closer.

Thompson may well lose as he’s not set the electorate afire since his announcement. Kinda like that Hunter fellar has also failed to do during the past year he’s been running. I’ve not ruled out Thompson as of today but by the time I get to vote it may not make much difference and then I can vote for Hunter if he’s still in the race.

Somehow we’ve got to get a nominee other than that twelve year old boy to run against the Democrat and I hope it is one that can bring at least most of the Republicans into his camp.

[Sun]

“On Monday, I and my son, a Captain in the infantry, just back after 15 months in Iraq, will be having lunch at Duncan Hunter’s table. There is a fund-raiser in Frankenmuth, MI. It will be a treat to talk to the best candidate in the race, again.”

I wish I could be there. Please give us an update.

[Sun]

Please tell your Captain son THANK YOU for us. You must be so very proud.

[Kevmo]

Thompson may well lose as he’s not set the electorate afire since his announcement.
***He’s had the opposite effect. His candidacy is in danger of imploding. At least he got the NRLC endorsement, that will help him.

You should familiarize yourself with why Intrade thinks his candidacy won’t go anywhere:
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

Today, the Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 1.0 higher than yesterday, 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

Today GOP.NOM.THOMPSON is trading at 5.9, hovering about the 6% mark. Volume is high and I would say trending upwards, so his recent decline is probably done.

2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 6.1 6.9 5.9 92464 0

[RasterMaster]

There are many reasons why FRed should be scratched, that was just one. In the same interview, asked by Alan Colmes “Would you support building a fence?” FRed’s reply: “If it would even work”. It was shown in San Diego that it DOES work.

“Aspirations of citizenship” for those who break the law is UNACCEPTABLE. Giving a path to citizenship (which was defeated twice last summer) for those who commit a FELONY (crossing the border illegally is a felony) set a standard of laws only matter for some.

---

“Remember the 1986 immigration amnesty? One of its beneficiaries was Mahmoud abu Halima, who went on to bomb the World Trade Center in 1993. His friend Mohammad Salameh wasn’t so fortunate. He applied for the ‘86 amnesty but was rejected. So he just stayed on in America, living illegally, and happily was still around to help Mahmoud and co-attack the Twin Towers. He’s the guy who rented the truck, which suggests he had enough ID to get past the rental agent at Ryder.” - Mark Steyn

http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0104/steyn011304.asp

---

Other reasons I cannot support FRed:

1. Lobbied for abortionists - But now he’s got a case of the Hillarys (”I don’t recall”)

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0707/4908.html

2. Represented murderous dictator Aristide, and not an “outsider” as he’s been know to portray on TV ads.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6737927,00.html

“Thompson, who likes to cast himself as a political outsider, earned more than $1 million lobbying the federal government for more than 20 years. He lobbied for a savings-and-loan deregulation bill that helped hasten the industry’s collapse and a failed nuclear energy project that cost taxpayers more than a billion dollars. “

3. Supported RINO incumbent protection bills such as McCain-Finegold...

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=22525

He hasn’t “retracted” as some like to put it....instead, he defends it (unless he’s pulled a FLIP ROMNEY since this article was published):

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=22525

4. Proposed protections and “normalized trade relations” for Chinese communists (the same folks who attack our aircraft in international waters, poison our children with lead-laden toys, and kill our pets with toxic food, and talk about hoping we “value L.A. more than we do our relationship with Taiwan” - veiled threats against US cities).

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_10/012266.php

5. Wants to give illegal aliens (otherwise known as FELONS) “aspirations of citizenship” rather than build a fence and enforce the law (Fence, deportation, fines for hiring illegals).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkN2fYnMTBs

6. Then there’s always his cozy relationship with John McCain.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9KM3AZUROA

7. Will not stand up for Christian Values...

Here’s another quote FRed wished would dissappear:

“I wouldn’t be too concerned about Christians and conservatives…Christianity has to do with saving souls and uplifting people, and not raising large amounts of soft money to run attack campaigns on folks.”

http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/164262.aspx

8. Had a DO-NOTHING approach to right to life issues while in congress and didn’t support the GOP platform when he ran in 1994:

http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/263508.aspx

9. Weak record on gun rights issues

http://www.gunowners.org/pres08/thompson2.htm

10. Against Clinton impeachment

That’s quite a RECORD OF ACCOMPLISHMENT. Playing it ‘down the middle’ is a sign of weakness...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5a_Fpu_8KE

More quotes from FRed....

“When you get back to the states, I think the states should have some leeway” (That one’s already been punted to the tyrants in black robes on the Supreme Court)

“The ultimate decision must be made by the woman. Government should treat its citizens as adults capable of making moral decisions on their own.” (Right to murder is not a moral decision)

“The very idea that we could even have a debate over whether or not that atrocious activity, uh, should be, uh, allowable, uh, is, uh, is very unfortunate, to say the least”. (UNFORTUNATE??? Not a strong position to take)

[trisham]

Let that little Puke try to clean up Detroit!

*************

Could he make it any worse? I say, let him at it.

[deport]

His candidacy is in danger of imploding.

---

Well at least he got far enough along to have a candidacy to implode with. Some never got off the ground and never will in this cycle, maybe next time.

We maybe down to selecting between Rudy, Willard and maybe the man from Hope if he gets a little luck in next 50 days in Iowa and NH [whenever they get their election scheduled]. I don’t see McCain or the others having a chance at this stage.

[Sun]

“It was shown in San Diego that it DOES work.”

Yes it does, and here are just a few examples:

“Homeland Security - San Diego Border Barrier

With the establishment of the fence, crime rates in San Diego fell by
nearly half between 1989 and 2000. The number of illegal immigrant
apprehensions decreased from more than a half million in 1993 to just
over a hundred thousand in 2003. The fence also helped stem the tide
of drug smuggling with cocaine seizures dropping from 1200 pounds to
about 150 pounds and a decline of 58,000 pounds of marijuana coming
across the San Diego border in 1993 to just over 36 thousand pounds a
decade later.”

http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/systems/border-barrier.htm

“SESSIONS BORDER FENCING AMENDMENT TO DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
APPROPRIATIONS ACT, 2007 Wednesday, August 2, 2006
Fencing has also reduced drug trafficking in San Diego. In 1993,
before the fence, authorities apprehended over 58,000 pounds of
marijuana coming across the border. In 2003, after the fence helped
stem the tide, only 36,000 pounds of marijuana were apprehended. In
addition, cocaine smuggling decreased from 1,200 pounds to
approximately 150 pounds. We have made a lot of progress there. We
need to replicate that. We have learned from it, and we need to follow
our own example. It is a one-time expense that this bill would meet
and will allow us to meet those challenges.”

http://sessions.senate.gov/pressapp/record.cfm?id=261170

> CRS Report for Congress
> Border Security: The San Diego Fence
> May 23, 2007
> http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RS22026.pdf
>
> CRS Report for Congress
> Border Security: Barriers Along the US International Border
> December 12, 2006
> http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RL33659.pdf
>
> CRS Report for Congress
> Border Security: Barriers Along the US International Border
> September 21, 2006
> http://www.pards.org/crs/CRSReportBorderSecurityBarriersAlongTheU.S.InternationalBorder(September21,2006).pdf
>
>
> CRS Report for Congress
> Border Security: Barriers Along the US International Border
> January 11, 2006
> http://leahy.senate.gov/issues/Immigration/BorderSecurity.pdf

[trisham]

[Kevmo]

You give up way too easily on conservatism, hastily looking for a name with recognition to back that is “conservative enough”.

At this point in the race 4 years ago, John Kerry was at 4%. So is Duncan Hunter. Had you ever heard of Dan Quayle before he was set on the national stage? The race itself provides name recognition, so we don’t need that as a crutch.

[Eastbound]

Thanks for the list. Do you have one on Hunter that shows the negatives?

You are mistaken on the impeachment vote. I'll check to see what others you have selectively quoted later. Gotta go.

Thanks again.

[mbraynard]

No, I don't think Willard is 'best among the losers.' I think he's the best, period. He's probably the best person running for the nomination since Reagan in 80.

And guess what finger I have up right now in response to your 'you have a lot to learn about true conservatives' comment. I would gladly stack my work for The Cause against your service in the 101st Keyboardists, Fightin' Pajamas.

[mbraynard]

Put down the model airplane cement.

Why? The fumes make me clarevoyant.

[Bigg Red]

HUNTER