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Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel on Sunday dismissed the idea that President Obama is vulnerable in Pennsylvania, where polls have tightened ahead of Tuesday's election. The mayor, a former White House chief of staff who is one of the president's most outspoken advocates, said the Obama campaign is confident in Pennsylvania despite the narrowing lead. "I think Pennsylvania is secure, but you don't take anything for granted," Mr. Emanuel said on CNN's "State of the Union." The Obama campaign is sending former President Bill Clinton to campaign in Pennsylvania on Monday, but Mr. Emmanuel played down that move as well. "That...

No doubt there are thousands, possibly even millions of people like me who are glad that the election season is (more than likely, barring recounts) coming to an end. In less than a week, we will know the outcome of the presidential election (again, barring recounts). As a lifelong campaign participant (my campaign experience started at 7 years of age), I know that campaigns are more than just raising money, producing ads, going to parades and participating in debates. They are the lifeblood of our country. Elections are the process by which our government remains the government of the people,...

The 2012 election will usher in a new administration, and they will win in a landslide. While even dyed-in-the-wool Obama supporters are willing to admit that Romney will likely win 50% of the popular vote, they are just as quick to point to the 2000 election and the President’s current lead in the Electoral College. While this loyalty is commendable, the cognitive dissidence it requires is shameful. Romney will win this election in a landslide in both popular vote and Electoral College vote; with at least 54% of the popular vote and over 300 votes in the Electoral College. The...

Former Virginia Gov. Doug Wilder, America's first elected black governor, has his own reservations about America's first black president, Barack Obama. Wilder, an emphatic Obama supporter in 2008, said his fellow Democrat should have focused more on creating jobs during his first term and faulted the president for failing to keep his campaign promise to bridge the partisan gap in Washington. "I think he's governed left of center and didn't focus on jobs and economic recovery," Wilder told The Washington Examiner. But will Wilder still vote for Obama on Tuesday in a battleground state Obama is desperate to win again?...

I can not excerpt, it's a video. He calls Ohio an Obama state (not a swing, but an assumed O state) for presentation of how Obama virtually can not lose, later he calls Ohio a swing, as he shows how Romney can barely win BUT ... Check my math. Halfway through they give a scenario (very likely one if it's not a landslide) where R gets Ohio but not NM and IA. By my math, Romney wins w/281 (see map below). Yet he claims Romney would still need Wisconsin.The reason I call this a lie, not a stat error,...

There’s been a never-ending stream of polls in this presidential race, but a new survey from Gallup could mark a key moment in the campaign. Mitt Romney, Gallup reported Monday, is leading Barack Obama among Americans who have already voted. Fifteen percent of those surveyed have voted, Gallup said, and among them, Romney leads the president by 52 percent to 46 percent. The news was particularly bad for the president because at this time in 2008, Obama led John McCain by an even bigger margin. And it was made even worse because early-voting totals are lagging among some of the...

Just over a week ago, I along with fifty other Tennesseans boarded a charter bus and began a five hour trek to the front lines of the 2012 fight for the Presidency. We arrived in southwestern Ohio at roughly 10 PM EST that Friday night. Upon our arrival to our hotel, we received our room assignments and initial instructions. Then we bedded down for the night. The next morning a slight drizzling rain and colder conditions greeted us. We again boarded the charter bus and left for the Butler County Victory Center located 15 minutes away. We received a quick...

1.47% is the average popular vote difference between presidential candidates in the last three electoral inversions (electoral vote winner is not popular vote winner.) There have been four electoral inversions in US history: 2000, 1888, 1876 and 1824. This calculation excludes 1824 because (1) four candidates won electoral votes, (2) the winner was decided by the House of Representatives because no candidate won a majority of the electoral votes, and (3) some states did not conduct popular votes. Summary: 2000: Gore: 48.4%. Bush: 47.9%. Diff.: 0.5%. 1888: Cleveland: 48.6%. Harrison: 47.8%. Diff.: 0.8%. 1876: Tilden: 51.0%. Hayes: 47.9%. Diff.: 3.1%....

The day before the last presidential debate, I speculated here on what states Obama would win. That final debate did not change much: Romney solidified his new status as frontrunner and has continued his momentum. He succeeded in presenting himself as what he in fact is: a plausible, competent candidate, and one, moreover, who has that presidential aura, that indefinable but essential nimbus of authority. Obama, for his part, gave his petulance free rein. As many commentators noted, he seemed more like the challenger than the incumbent: scrappy, impatient, full of bile and vitriol. Unfortunately, for him, Romney got...

Two presidential campaigns are underway: One to win on Election Day, the other to win after it.President Obama and Mitt Romney are each preparing for recounts, confusion over voter-eligibility rules, and even the chance of a tie in the Electoral College. A close election, as this one will almost certainly be, means all three scenarios are on the table.In 2000, it took until Dec. 12 for lawyers and courts to settle on a White House winner. Here are three ways this year’s presidential battle could last long past Nov. 6:RECOUNTSFlorida’s infamous 2000 presidential recount is the first thing that...

Abstract: The National Popular Vote (NPV) plan is the latest in a long line of schemes designed to replace the Electoral College. Imbued with the ideals of this nation’s Founders, the Electoral College has proved itself to be both effective in providing orderly elections for President and resilient in allowing a stable transfer of power of the leadership of the world’s greatest democracy. Therefore, while it would be a mistake to replace the Electoral College, replacing this system with the NPV would be a disaster. The NPV would devalue the minority interests that the Founders sought to protect, create electoral...

All Obama has to do is win every state Kerry won in 2004 plus New Mexico and Ohio, and he ties Romney 269-269. Note that, by current RCP polling averages, this remains plausible. Every safe or leaning state would stay put and the current swing states would be split along 2004 lines, except for Ohio. That means, assuming no electors go "rogue" and vote for the other party, next year the new House picks the President and the new Senate picks the Vice President. In the House, each state gets 1 vote among the top 3 EV vote-getters, virtually guaranteeing...

# Republican campaign sees chance to capitalise on President's struggles # Set to launch new push in states where Obama had double-digit victory # Election likely to come down to Florida, Virginia and above all Ohio Mitt Romney is to travel to Wisconsin, a state Barack Obama won in a 14-point blowout four years ago, as the Republican candidate's surging campaign seeks to expand the 'chessboard' into previously safe Democratic territory. At the same time, the Romney campaign has bought television advertising in the Boston market, which reaches screens in New Hampshire, a state Obama won by almost 10 points...

BOCA RATON, Fla. — The two presidential campaigns are sounding sharply different notes about how they can get to 270 electoral votes, but beneath the post-debate bravado from both sides there is a rough consensus about the shape of the race in its final two weeks. Top strategists for both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney flooded the media center following the third and final presidential debate here Monday night, and made clear they will be primarily fighting over seven states and will spend most of their time and money in them between now and Nov. 6. The main battlegrounds: Ohio,...

There's been a lot of chatter lately about the plausible scenario that Obama and Romney tie in the electoral college. The odds aren't that low. Essentially, here's what would happen. Provided that there are no faithless electors — people selected for the Electoral College who disregard the popular vote in their state and vote for the opponent — the election would be decided in Congress, when each state delegation votes and allocates one vote to a candidate. The first one to amass 26 votes wins. Here's the issue a lot of people are talking about. What if Obama wins the...

Since the debate on Tuesday, which many analysts ceded to President Obama, mainly on strength of his having shown up, the term comeback kid has been getting play among liberal pundits. Yet, this afternoon’s Real Clear Politics Electoral Map suggests goaway kid (or maybe just, “Go away, kid!”) is a more fitting description. The map for the first time gives challenger Mitt Romney a lead of 206 to 201 over Obama in Electoral College votes. Strikingly, the map has Florida (with 29 Electoral votes), Michigan (with 16), Ohio (with 18), Pennsylvania (with 20), Virginia (with 13), and Wisconsin (with 10)...

[SNIP]Not long ago, this hopeful prospect might have seemed impossible for even the most optimistic Republican to imagine. As recently as Oct. 2,a Roanoke College poll reported President Obama leading by 8 points in Virginia, but in the past two weeks,the Old Dominion has shifted sharply toward the GOP challenger. Romney has led five of the seven most recent polls and,although the RCP average for Virginia still shows Obama with razor-thin lead,the Republicans here sense a strong enough momentum to carry them to victory on Nov.6...........The Democrats are evidently shrinking their Electoral College map,in what looks like a defensive "triage"...

By: Atlas Research Team What happens if the Electoral College ends up in a tie? Several people have written about it recently, and while the chances are relatively low, it’s helpful to know what happens if it occurs. In the event of a 269 to 269 tie, the newly elected House of Representatives would be responsible for deciding the outcome of the presidential election. Each state’s delegation in the U.S. House would vote once for President and each U.S. Senator would cast a vote for Vice President. At least in the House, one vote per state means that smaller states have an...

How likely is this, really? History suggests “not very,” unless the race is extremely close. This is because the Electoral College and the popular vote almost always line up reasonably well. It lists presidential races going back to 1952 (prior to 1952, the ensuing exercise is difficult to apply because of the “Solid South”). The second column lists the state from which the candidate who won the popular vote received his 270th electoral vote. That’s a bit abstract, but think of it this way: In 2008, Barack Obama won Washington, D.C., by 86 percentage points, his largest margin of victory...

The possibility that Mitt Romney could win the popular vote while Barack Obama wins the vote in the Electoral College has been discussed throughout this campaign. In recent days, we've seen pieces from Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, Harry Enten and RCP's Scott Conroy exploring the issue. Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina has even referenced the potential discrepancy, urging reporters to look at the state polls rather than the national surveys.How likely is this, really? History suggests "not very," unless the race is extremely close. This is because the Electoral College and the popular vote almost always line up reasonably well.Take...