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Source: Stratfor.com Dissecting the 'Chinese Miracle' By Peter Zeihan The "Chinese miracle" has been a leading economic story for several years now. The headlines are familiar: "China's GDP Growth Fastest in Asia." "China Overtakes United Kingdom as Fourth-Largest Economy." "China Becomes World's Second-Largest Energy Consumer." "China Revises GDP Growth Rates Upward -- Again." Everywhere, one can find news articles about China, rising like a phoenix from the economic debris of its Maoist system to change and challenge the world in every way imaginable. But just like the phoenix, the idea of an inevitable Chinese juggernaut is a myth. Moreover, Western...

Stratfor, a private intelligence and security consulting organization, has released a 10-year geopolitical forecast predicting the decline of China and Russia, the rise of Japan, the disintegration of the European Union and the continued dominance of the United States. Stratfor said its forecast, released Monday, is based on its ongoing analysis of security, political, demographic, and other major trends in all key regions of the world. The forecast is intended to help its clients (including corporations, governments, and financial institutions) form long-range strategic plan by "identifying potential risks and opportunities." According to the 2005-2015 forecast, the United States will continue...

(CNSNews.com) - Stratfor, a private intelligence and security consulting organization, has released a 10-year geopolitical forecast predicting the decline of China and Russia, the rise of Japan, the disintegration of the European Union and the continued dominance of the United States. Stratfor said its forecast, released Monday, is based on its ongoing analysis of security, political, demographic, and other major trends in all key regions of the world. The forecast is intended to help its clients (including corporations, governments, and financial institutions) form long-range strategic plan by "identifying potential risks and opportunities." According to the 2005-2015 forecast, the United States...

Stratfor Founder Said 9/11 Attack Designed to Draw U.S. into Combat Intelligence Expert Noted Jihadi Victory Over USSR As Watershed Event Addressing JINSA’s Board of Directors on November 14 2004, Dr. George Friedman, founder and chairman of Stratfor, the world’s leading privately held intelligence company, discussed al Qaeda’s origins and explained how that history ties to both the events of September 11 as well as the current war in Iraq. According to Friedman, the war in Iraq was born out of the Cold War. His conclusion comes mainly from the fact that the U.S. trained Islamic jihadists so that they...

A new audiotaped communique allegedly from Osama bin Laden surfaced Dec. 27. On the tape, the al Qaeda leader calls upon Iraqis to boycott the Jan. 30 elections and announces that top Iraqi jihadist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is the network's representative in Iraq. This message shows that al Qaeda is very much interested in becoming a player in Iraq. That al Qaeda officially has announced al-Zarqawi's affiliation with the militant network also indicates that al Qaeda may be weakening -- or returning to its old tactics. Analysis Arabic-language satellite channel Al Jazeera reported that it has received a...

Ukraine will hold a rerun of its presidential runoff election Dec. 26. Like the original presidential election between candidates Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and opposition Viktor Yushchenko, this election is sure to cause controversy in Ukraine. Summary Ukraine will hold a rerun of its presidential runoff election Dec. 26. Like the original presidential election between candidates Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and opposition Viktor Yushchenko, this election is sure to cause controversy in Ukraine. Analysis After the Ukrainian Supreme Court's decision to nullify the country's hotly contested presidential runoff election, the country will hold a rerun of the election Dec....

On Dec. 13, 2003, U.S. troops found former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein hiding in a hole near Tikrit, his hometown. Hussein's capture was heralded as a turning point in the war, a sign that coalition forces were indeed making progress against the insurgency. A year later, Stratfor reflects on an insurgency that has taken on a distinct life of its own. In the wake of the insurgency's deadliest attack against U.S. forces Dec. 21 in Mosul, we continue this four-part series with part two, a look at the nationalist guerrilla movement. Summary Of the three main guerrilla movements in Iraq...

The Russian defeat in Ukraine is nearly complete. In presidential runoff elections, the Ukrainian government's candidate, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, won the official ballot. However, protests launched by opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko over alleged election fraud -- combined with strong international pressure -- caused the results to be overturned. New elections will be held Dec. 26, and Yushchenko is widely expected to win. Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, in an effort to deny Yushchenko the powers that he himself has enjoyed, succeeded in forcing the Ukrainian opposition to accept constitutional amendments that will transfer some presidential powers to the Parliament, but...

WARNING: Do not embarrass yourself by interepting this as an editorial and posting your ill-founded objections to its implications. It is a four cornered piece of analysis, nothing more. Ax. Summary After being re-elected leader of Germany's opposition Christian Democratic Union on Dec. 6, Angela Merkel spoke out against multiculturalism and condemned Berlin's attempts to integrate ethnic communities. Merkel's statements echo the sentiments of a certain earlier German government, and the re-emergence of right-wing parties there could portend another shift in the country's policies toward foreigners. Analysis Angela Merkel, leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Party, lambasted Germany's policies...

Deutsche Bank recommended in a Nov. 30 report that Russian state energy firm Gazprom "buy Yuganskneftegaz, Yukos's main production unit, as part of a wider strategy to increase its presence in the oil sector." Deutsche Bank went on to recommend that Gazprom -- already the world's largest natural gas firm with production of 540 billion cubic meters annually and exports of 190 billion cubic meters -- also snap up Surgutneftegaz and Sibneft, Russia's fourth- and fifth-largest oil firms. Gazprom would then have annual oil production pushing 4 million barrels per day (bpd), making it a top mover and shaker in...

Why are we in Iraq? It is not, as some ranters claim, because George Bush is stupid and bloodthirsty and John Howard a spineless crawler. Nor is it because the US has regressed to Wilsonian imperialism. For those seriously interested in the question I recommend a seriously interesting new book, America's Secret War by George Friedman. Friedman is founder of Stratfor, a private, subscription-financed global intelligence service, which I find consistently well-informed. Friedman writes of the struggle in Iraq in relentlessly Realpolitik terms. -snip- From this fortress headquarters, Friedman writes, al-Qa'ida ("the Base" in English) pressed its grand design for...

Summary The U.S. Embassy in India issued a statement saying the U.S. Consulate General in Mumbai would be closed Nov. 23 after threats of possible attacks. The warning lacked specifics, and considering that most militant activity in India has been away from centers of U.S. interests, the closure and warning are likely a precautionary, proactive measure. Analysis The U.S. Consulate General in the western Indian city of Mumbai was closed after receiving threats of possible attacks, the U.S. Embassy announced Nov. 23. No specifics were provided in the statement, which said the move was taken after the receipt of information...

Summary State-run radio in Tehran reported that Iran has suspended uranium enrichment and all related activities. Despite several recent accusations that could undermine Iran's agreement with Britain, France and Germany to suspend its nuclear program, Iran's desire to strengthen its bargaining power with the international community and ward off threats from the United States ensures the deal will stand. Analysis Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said Nov. 22 that Tehran has suspended its nuclear and uranium enrichment program. In Vienna, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed ElBaradei said the claim appears true and seemingly includes a suspension of operations...

Summary Pakistani authorities Nov. 22 released on bail the husband of the country's top opposition politician. Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's regime likely will try to use this decision to co-opt the secular opposition. Given the circumstances of the release, it is unlikely that a deal will be struck between the opposition and Islamabad. Analysis Asif A. Zardari was released on bail Nov. 22 after being in prison since 1996 on corruption charges. Zardari is the husband of two-time former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who also leads the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). While the media is rife with speculation...

Summary With pro-Moscow candidate Viktor Yanukovich emerging victorious in Ukraine's presidential runoff, and pro-U.S. challenger Viktor Yushchenko launching a popular revolt in response, Ukraine nears an historic crossroads: Stay with Russia or drift to the West. The stakes are high and the country is sharply divided -- a situation that likely will lead to violence in Ukraine's most significant internal conflict since independence. Analysis With 99.14 percent of the vote counted in Ukraine's presidential runoff election, the Ukrainian Central Election Commission has declared pro-Moscow candidate Viktor Yanukovich the winner, with 49.42 percent of the vote. His pro-Western contender, Viktor Yushchenko,...

Today's diary begins with a rather unusual situation report that Stratfor posted this morning: "1214 GMT - U.S. officials are looking into reports that some 25 Chechen militants might have crossed into Arizona from Mexico sometime in July, a report in the Oct. 13 Washington Times claims. The report of the militant infiltration was initially made in August or September and was based on information from an unidentified intelligence source, the Times reported." The story was from only a single source and that made us question running with it at first, particularly as it seemed so odd. It is not...

Two events occurred in Iran on Oct. 20 that could have a far-reaching impact on the U.S. role in Iraq in particular and the Middle East in general. The first was in the early morning when Hasan Rowhani, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, gave a ringing endorsement to U.S. President George W. Bush's re-election campaign. Naturally, an endorsement from a member of the "Axis of Evil" was quickly rejected by the administration, but it can hardly be dismissed when it comes mere hours after the president acquiesced to the possibility of a Shiite-controlled Islamic republic in Iraq --...

NEW YORK In assessing the final presidential debate Wednesday night, newspaper editorials gave less space to the performance of John Kerry and George W. Bush than to the overall usefulness of the three one-on-one matches. To the surprise of many editorial writers, they found the triple feature to be a truly valuable tool for voters, with most saying they offered a clear view of where each candidate stands. The Chicago Tribune, for example, asked readers to "cherish" the debates. "Like the first two debates," it said, "Wednesday night's rounder in Arizona showcased rugged but revealing politicking between two men who...

Summary The U.S. military says the two deadly bombs that exploded within Baghdad's Green Zone on Oct. 14 likely were smuggled into the sprawling compound. If this is true, security has been breached within the previously impermeable zone -- raising the specter of additional violence within it. Analysis Two bomb blasts inside Baghdad's protected Green Zone on Oct. 14 killed three U.S. civilians and two Iraqis, and injured 13. After first reporting the explosions as caused by mortar rounds, the U.S. military acknowledged that homemade bombs -- apparently smuggled into the compound -- caused the mayhem. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's Jamaat...

During the two debates held so far, we have learned three things. First, that George W. Bush never made a mistake. Second, that John Kerry would never have made any of the mistakes Bush made, and that he does not intend to make any mistakes in the future. Third, and most important, that there is precious little substantial disagreement between the two candidates on war strategy going forward. Whatever Kerry has had to say about Bush's execution of the war in the past, he has made it clear that he will continue what Bush calls the "War on Terror"...