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Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
Yahoo/AP ^ | 12/23/04 | JOHN ANTCZAK

Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one

AP

Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029

Thu Dec 23, 5:40 PM ET

By JOHN ANTCZAK, Associated Press Writer

LOS ANGELES - There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA (news - web sites) scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.

 

There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.

On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."

The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.

"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.

"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.

Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.

Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.

The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.

Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Ariz., and this month from Australia and New Zealand.

___

On the Net:

Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov




TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2029; apophis; artbell; asteroid; asteroids; callingartbell; catastrophism; endoftheworld; fridaythe13th; impact; levy; shoemaker; velikovsky
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To: hole_n_one

It's true, Torino scale 4 now.

2004 MN4 Impact Risk
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html


101 posted on 12/25/2004 10:46:17 AM PST by SunkenCiv ("All I have seen teaches me trust the Creator for all I have not seen." -- Emerson)
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To: SunkenCiv; hole_n_one
The impact odds have just increased to 1:43 based on the last days worth of observation and orbital analysis refinement. It is generating quite a bit of traffic on the NEO lists. We still do not have a handle on exactly how big the thing is and they are trying to get as many data points as possible from the everyone who can track this thing with precision gear.

What is remarkable is that the media makes a big story out of tiny rocks that come nowhere close to impacting the earth on a regular basis, and yet here is a rock the size of a small mountain with a real possibility of impact and the media hasn't said a word. I'd think they would be loving this.

102 posted on 12/25/2004 11:04:40 AM PST by tortoise (All these moments lost in time, like tears in the rain.)
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To: tortoise
I'd think they would be loving this.

They will love to blame it on GWB!

103 posted on 12/25/2004 11:10:05 AM PST by Las Vegas Dave
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To: tortoise

They were 1:300 just yesterday.


104 posted on 12/25/2004 11:10:18 AM PST by txhurl
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To: txflake
They were 1:300 just yesterday.

Yep. Then they were 1:64. Now they are 1:43.

Those odds are based on the margin of error on the orbital path, the center-line plus or minus a certain amount in two dimensions. The cross-section of the probable path is getting smaller as our measurements are becoming more precise, and the earth is still inside that path cross-section and a larger target as a percentage of that cross-section.

JPL and NASA have been given priority time on our deep-space sensor nets (including US Space Command assets if I am not mistaken) to develop a very precise orbital model of this rock. With this much effort being put into the measurement, eventually the orbital path cross-section will be smaller than the diameter of the Earth and we can say with a high degree of certainty whether or not it will hit the planet and roughly where if it does. We'll have a second chance to make fine-tuning corrections in 2013. Interesting stuff.

I would point out that based on the orbit of this rock, that it will be a regular recurring threat.

105 posted on 12/25/2004 2:49:39 PM PST by tortoise (All these moments lost in time, like tears in the rain.)
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To: tortoise
I would point out that based on the orbit of this rock, that it will be a regular recurring threat.
Good point. 38 close passes over a 50 year period -- assuming of course it doesn't hit the Earth on one of the earlier passes. ;') Regardless, this should revitalize the US space program. I mean, who else has the resources to save the Earth from this? :'D

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106 posted on 12/25/2004 4:26:40 PM PST by SunkenCiv ("All I have seen teaches me trust the Creator for all I have not seen." -- Emerson)
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To: dalereed

LOL, I'll be 82 in 2029 so I don't think I'll worry either.


107 posted on 12/25/2004 4:47:33 PM PST by jrcats
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To: hole_n_one
Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029

LOL! Maybe Social Security will be straightened out by then.

108 posted on 12/25/2004 4:49:29 PM PST by beyond the sea (A man who says he can see through women is missing a lot.)
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To: SunkenCiv

A more poignant observation is that there is a hell of a lot of rocks of this size that we haven't even noticed yet and we've only started looking. The rock in question is US State size obliterating event. Not a showstopper for life as we know it, but a serious inconvenience for anyone who catches a piece of it.


109 posted on 12/25/2004 10:08:23 PM PST by tortoise (All these moments lost in time, like tears in the rain.)
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To: tortoise

Quite agree. Radioastronomy is used to hunt for sun-side rocks, which are difficult or impossible to spot using visible light (because of the Sun swamping everything else). The Earth gives a come-hither to many an asteroid, tugging at them each time one passes or we pass one. Over time, some of those will come down.

Ten years or so ago, fired by the SL-9 impacts, there was a surge of interest in NEOs. For years thereafter the estimates of the number of unknown rocks was quite a lot larger than it is now. Partly that was due to grant-seeking. But the current accepted estimate of the numbers seems far too low.


110 posted on 12/26/2004 9:17:31 AM PST by SunkenCiv ("All I have seen teaches me trust the Creator for all I have not seen." -- Emerson)
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To: hole_n_one

I may drop dead while typing this messaiommmgda,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,unnnghhh


111 posted on 12/26/2004 9:20:06 AM PST by Osage Orange (Quando Omni Flunkus Moritati)
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The Hazard of Near-Earth Asteroid Impacts on Earth
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Posted on 12/02/2004 10:51:16 AM PST by SunkenCiv
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112 posted on 12/26/2004 10:33:03 AM PST by SunkenCiv (There's nothing new under the Sun. That accounts for the many quotes used as taglines.)
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Another related topic:

More on Asteroid Toutatis Passing Earth Sept 29th, 2004
Space.Com ^ | Sept 28th, 2004 | Robert Britt
Posted on 09/28/2004 5:34:19 PM PDT by missyme
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1229803/posts


113 posted on 12/26/2004 10:55:45 AM PST by SunkenCiv (There's nothing new under the Sun. That accounts for the many quotes used as taglines.)
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To: SunkenCiv
Today's traffic: Some internal (unofficial) analyses of the orbital elements are putting impact probability at 1:20 now, though the major risk sites have kept the 1:43-ish official numbers.

The thing that is causing a lot of consternation among the scientists is that they cannot seem to nail down the size. While the official releases put it around 400m, it could easily be as small as a couple hundred meters or as large as a kilometer in diameter (now that would be a country killer).

I'm getting a bunch of NEO scientist traffic on this. Pity there isn't an official thread for tracking this particular asteroid.

114 posted on 12/26/2004 10:57:03 AM PST by tortoise (All these moments lost in time, like tears in the rain.)
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four more, and offline I go...

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115 posted on 12/26/2004 10:59:41 AM PST by SunkenCiv (There's nothing new under the Sun. That accounts for the many quotes used as taglines.)
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To: Osage Orange

[singing] "swing low, sweet chariot..."


116 posted on 12/26/2004 11:00:34 AM PST by SunkenCiv (There's nothing new under the Sun. That accounts for the many quotes used as taglines.)
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To: tortoise; ValerieUSA

"Pity there isn't an official thread for tracking this particular asteroid."

[sniff] what about this one? Welcome one and all to the unoffficial thread... ;')

1:20 is a mere 5 per cent risk. That's a lot higher (obviously) than the risk of death from flying on a plane, or driving a car, or falling off a stepladder... :'o


117 posted on 12/26/2004 11:03:24 AM PST by SunkenCiv (There's nothing new under the Sun. That accounts for the many quotes used as taglines.)
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To: hole_n_one; tortoise; blam; ValerieUSA; FairOpinion; Ernest_at_the_Beach
a selection of related topics: Massive Tsunami Sweeps Atlantic Coast In Asteroid Impact Scenario (Surf's Up) UC Santa Cruz Press Release | May 27, 2003 | UC Santa Cruz Press Release Posted on 05/29/2003 9:57:14 AM PDT by Mike Darancette http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/919723/posts Hollywood fantasy? Tidal wave disaster is just waiting to happen The Guardian Unlimited ^ | August 10, 2004 | Ian Sample Posted on 08/11/2004 5:57:52 PM PDT by pepsi_junkie http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1189804/posts 'Rogue waves' reported by mariners get scientific backing yahoo news ^ | 7/21/04 | unknown Posted on 07/23/2004 1:25:25 AM PDT by Rebelbase http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1176910/posts Ship-sinking monster waves revealed by ESA satellites European Space Agency ^ | 7/21/04 Posted on 07/22/2004 10:25:27 PM PDT by uglybiker http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1176837/posts Ship-sinking Monstor Waves Revealed By ESA Satellites European Space Agency.
118 posted on 12/26/2004 5:59:32 PM PST by SunkenCiv (There's nothing new under the Sun. That accounts for the many quotes used as taglines.)
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not my fault.


119 posted on 12/26/2004 6:00:19 PM PST by SunkenCiv (There's nothing new under the Sun. That accounts for the many quotes used as taglines.)
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To: tortoise

Let us all know if there are any official or unofficial updates. The NASA site is holding steady at 1:43 odds.

Tradesports should establish a market in this.


120 posted on 12/26/2004 6:27:00 PM PST by eno_ (Freedom Lite, it's almost worth defending.)
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