So, to review, your plan is to take conservative support from the guy who is heading for the basement after a couple of months, and give it to a guy who has been in the basement since the day before Halloween in 2006. Why, that's...
Brilliant!
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
OK, so you’ve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your “investment”, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. You’re going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
https://www.intrade.com/
Which one do you choose?
Let’s start with the guy who has 3 balls. He’s got courage in spades. He’s engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as “the man who broke the sound barrier”, Chuck Yeager. While they’re campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon… and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and they’ll all look at each other & nod, saying, “this is the guy who should be my president”.
Now let’s cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldn’t be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. It’s interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.
Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldn’t screw up.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunter’s contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922644/posts
At that point, everyone will know he’s at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if they’re still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.
Here’s where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.
2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election
At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Fred’s campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.
While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesn’t screw up, Hunter’s supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that he’ll just be himself.
Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.
That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. That’s where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy they’re fighting for is genuine.
All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then we’ll start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether it’s our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunter’s campaign
http://www.gohunter08.com
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.
And then we’ll see Hunter smile.
We are in total agreement!
You’re a bit slow on the uptake here.
***Um, nope. You said you love Duncan, so you’re the one who put your own emotional state up for discussion. I’ll let the Freepers decide which caveat is more applicable here, probably Caveat Freeptor.
caveat emptor “let the buyer beware”; caveat lector “let the reader beware” ; caveat subscriptor “let the signer beware” ; caveat venditor “let the seller beware”; caveat utilitor “let the user beware”
That doesn’t explain why he was languishing in the basement for the six months it took Fred to show up.
***He had low name recognition. Big deal. So did Jimmah carter, Bill Crintoon, heck even Condi Rice before she joined the Bush team. The process itself can generate name recognition. The fact that someone entered the race and occupied some of the same real estate on the ideology scale is very telling in this regard as to why his name recognition didn’t skyrocket like Huckabee’s. And that guy who did come in, the one who had such wonderful name recognition, he squandered it and his poll numbers are dropping and he lost the lead at Intrade, dropping 30 points.
Prediction markets are more accurate than poll results. They can be...
***thanks for that acknowledgement.
You’re not asking me to believe a prediction market that has Hunter as the GOP nominee. You’re asking me to believe that your personal prediction of a Hunter surge is accurate. I think you’ll agree that’s a far more dicey proposition.
***Wow, it took this long for someone to realize this interesting point. Good for you. However, the market itself is the indicator here, not you nor me. And after I posted my article, that number has moved to 28930 from 27778. Then we started to see evidence of manipulation with large blocks of shorting interest which would not pay off unless they weren’t subject to commissions, which is more likely to happen in a high “coefficient of static friction” candidate than a candidate contract which is much more liquid.
Possible examples of Intrade political data being manipulated
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1855.page
So the action moved to the contract 2008.PRES.FIELD (where Hunter is still embedded) and there has been some high volume on that contract. So the market believes the analysis. And I’m not even sure it would qualify as a “surge” to say that Hunter could make it to 4% at Intrade, when Huckabee and Ron Paul both did so after their poll results were at that stage as well. The dicieness of the proposition is that Hunter’s contracts would move upward in the same way that Huckster’s and Paulertariat’s did. I notice that it’s folks who have a vested interest in seeing Hunter go away that like to emphasize how this proposition is “Far More” dicey than it is on its face. The market, though, isn’t as emotional as you, and it has heard what you have to say contrasted with what I have to say and it has already begun to speak.
Ok, yeah, it must be that I'm emotional. [snicker!] Thanks for the psych eval.
Not a thing you've posted here has even chipped away at this statement: "Throughout those six months he had a wide open shot at the title of 'electable conservative' and he did little to nothing with it."
If Hunter had run a smart (or even competent) campaign, he would have been the clear conservative frontrunner and been in a position to not only keep that after Fred got in, but more likely to give Fred a reason to sit the race out. Blame Thompson all you want, if Hunter had done his job Thompson would not have even been an item of discussion. SUSSA is 100% dead on with this analysis.
Hunter will not be the nominee. He will not win Iowa. If I am wrong about that we are in very real trouble, because his general election campagn will be the same disaster his primary campaign has been.
What about the way Hunter has run his campaign so far convinces you that he can win the Presidency? I mean, I count on God for miracles all the time, but He isn't going to violate the free will of tens of millions of voters, so there has to be a campaign of some sort.
If you really, truly believed that, you would be training a militia. Are you?
Hold on a minute. Do you remember how in the 2000 and 2004 campaigns GWB had tens of thousands of middle class donors giving $50 or $100 while Gore and Kerry had a much smaller donor base that gave much larger donations?
If we've all bee looking for a conservative in this race, why hasn't Hunter been able to tap that group? He can't get mailing lists from conservative organizations and ask us for money? He doesn't need a right wing George Soros any more than Bush did...and don't bother telling me it's different because Bush is rich. You don't need to be rich to do good fundraising.
Hey pissant, how much money you got? I've got $38 in my wallet, let's start with that. :)
And since the media thinks that independent voters dislike real conservatism, and that there's really no such thing as a Reagan Democrat anymore, there really wouldn't be any reluctance on their part to talk about him. They would think he was scary, not appealing.
Not a thing you’ve posted here
***Thanks for continuing to bump this thread. Of course, you’re wrong, but thanks for continuing.
Ok, yeah, it must be that I’m emotional. [snicker!]
***You’re the one who posted, “I love Duncan...”
Not a thing you’ve posted here has even chipped away at this statement: “Throughout those six months he had a wide open shot at the title of ‘electable conservative’ and he did little to nothing with it.”
***He was an underdog. The thing I posted was: big deal. So, once again, you’re wrong. This underdog was a lot like McClintock before the Hollywood hopeful entered the race. Later on it was realized that McClintock had been gaining in the polls and would have beat Bustamonte. But the republican party was so starstruck by the name recognition behind aRINOld that they started fawning over him and ignored the conservative. Republicans are like that when it comes to name recognition. Look at your own focus on it.
If Hunter had run a smart (or even competent) campaign, he would have been the clear conservative frontrunner
***I agree. But fred entered before Hunter could gain that momentum.
and been in a position to not only keep that after Fred got in, but more likely to give Fred a reason to sit the race out.
***And we’re just beginning to see evidence of that recovery now. Thompson supporters are telling Hunter supporters that they need to follow Thompson because his poll results are higher, even though Hunterites weigh conservatism and pro-life in higher regard than polls. And Thompson followers tell Huckabee followers that they need to follow someone who’s more conservative, even though Hucksterites obviously don’t regard conservatism in the same weight as Pro-life & poll results. In essense, they are asking both camps to hold in high regard what they already hold in low regard. They are between a rock and a hard place. Hunter is better than Thompson on issues, and Huckabee is better than Thompson on polls. Thompson is a loser — losing 30 points on Intrade after having that much name recognition means he is a lousy campaigner.
Blame Thompson all you want,
***Blame. Funny how it’s the Thompson supporters that jump to the conclusion on using that word. Why don’t you go and blame Hucksterbee for stealing all the pro-life wind out of Thompson’s sails, since you’re so focused on blame?
if Hunter had done his job Thompson would not have even been an item of discussion. SUSSA is 100% dead on with this analysis.
***Simple. Hunter would have gained enough name recognition by now to be the front runner. And Fred is running high at Intrade for the contract of likely to Drop Out for a reason.
Hunter will not be the nominee.
***We saw the same crystal ball approaches from folks saying Huckster wouldn’t be the nominee, but now he beats your guy in the polls.
He will not win Iowa. If I am wrong about that we are in very real trouble, because his general election campagn will be the same disaster his primary campaign has been.
***As a party, we ARE in trouble. We have allowed a cross-dressing, NAMBLA-parading, open-borders, gun-grabbing socialist to be the front runner. Hunter is the best man in the race and we need to coalesce behind him.
If we’ve all bee looking for a conservative in this race, why hasn’t Hunter been able to tap that group?
***Because, similar to what has happened here on Free Republic, the support drifted over to the name recognition conservative. But that support is not deep. Thompson’s promise was that by this time in the race he’d be kicking tootyfruityrudy to the curb, but instead he’s whining about Huckabee and barely beats Ron Paul at Intrade. The bible says something about “to whom much is given, much is required” and the parable of the talents shows that bigger results are expected from those to whom more is given. Thompson was given name recognition and money and the result is dropping polls and losing 30 points at Intrade. Time to give those resources to someone who has been much more frugal with what’s been given to him: Hunter.
Excuses, excuses. What you're basically saying here is that Hunter can only make the case that he's an electable conservative candidate if everybody else will just stay out of his way. Why should anyone back a guy who can't convince the conservatives in his party that he's worth voting for? He couldn't even do it when he was the only conservative running. How's he supposed to convince independents and Reagan Dems he's worth voting for in the general?
Hunter is the best man in the race and we need to coalesce behind him.
Hunter is the best man in the race ideologically...but ideology only wins elections when an electable candidate is the one carrying the banner. If we're going to pick ideologically great guys who can't win elections, then we should all just agree to write in Rush Limbaugh, he at least has some name recognition.
I love Duncan Hunter. I was suprised that he didn’t rise in the polls. I looked around awhikle and landed on Romney. I wish Duncan had this manner and delivery. Unfortunately America is going to vote for the one who has the charisma they desire. I find that in Romney.
I am sure this is distasteful to those who support Hunter, but these are the facts.
So, to review, your plan is to take conservative support from the guy who is heading for the basement after a couple of months, and give it to a guy who has been in the basement since the day before Halloween in 2006. Why, that's...
Brilliant!
Congressmen are at a distinct disadvantage anyway. When's the last time a 'critter won the GOP nomination? Been at least a few decades.
I'll be voting for Hunter if he's still on the ballot when it's time for my state primary (which is down the road a bit), but at this point it doesn't look promising.
I wanted Hunter to be President, be he hasn't caught fire and now I'm undecided. Right now I think Fred is great but also needs to catch fire, Romney stinks but can get elected, and Rudy and Huckabee are horror shows.
It would be interesting to hear from Hunter about whether he requested the support of the conservative organizations you pointed out to see if he was actually retarded enough to fail to contact them. If that's the reality then I will eat my hat.
More than likely the big party Gop within made the decision about who to back prior to him asking for support.
Same here...Illinois' primary never picks the nominee, so I can't harm an electable candidate by showing support for Duncan.
It is an appropriate response when someone has taken away the right to a meaningful vote in a Republic. The Founders rebelled over less. But, let's say you're right, and I'm way off. Martin Luther King Jr. dealt with a situation where a substantial portion of the population had their civil rights taken away, including any meaningful right to vote. So I guess my question is, when will we see you getting sprayed with a fire hose and attacked by dogs?
It would be interesting to hear from Hunter about whether he requested the support of the conservative organizations you pointed out to see if he was actually retarded enough to fail to contact them. If that's the reality then I will eat my hat.
Make sure you have some A-1 sauce handy, because you're going to need it if anyone asks him that. I get mail from Focus on the Family and NRLC all the time, and I haven't seen a single piece of mail from Hunter. Granted, Focus may not give those lists to political groups, but I think you get my point. Have you received any campaign fundraising material from him?
More than likely the big party Gop within made the decision about who to back prior to him asking for support.
Yep. Well, if you believe that, you should be out in front of RNC HQ singing "We Shall Overcome." Dress warm.
Funny, but I never saw you at any of the DC rallies. Maybe you are too busy attending secret meetings and dogging the CIA cameras. :)~~
At any rate, your points about Duncan not getting press are moot. Everyone on FR knows that the media has been pushing Rudy. Probably most of America knows it by now. But go ahead and make the point that the media and the conservative groups have have been "fair" to Ducan. I won't stop you.
Hunter is the best man in the race ideologically...but ideology only wins elections when an electable candidate is the one carrying the banner.
***This is the crux of the matter. It’s why we have the guvernator aRINOld instead of Tom McClintock. You’re fond of pointing out excuses, what are the excuses for the fact that someone who is basically diametrically opposed to our platform is the frontrunner? Where’s all the aRINOld supporters who pushed around the McClintock followers here on FR? They’re off somewhere pushing their favorite RINO, and that is what has happened to this party.
Look no further than the mirror for the reason, Mr. Quick-to-Blame. And as far as “everybody else will just stay out of his way” I’m only saying that Hunter would get the traction if Thompson got out of his way, just like McClintock would have won if aRINOld wasn’t in his way.
Why do you expend so much effort on some candidate who’s supposedly going nowhere? I never spent any time on a Tommy Thompson nor Brownback thread because they were truly going nowhere. But Hunter has his own special peanut gallery of supposed conservatives who look for any reason to talk down about him. Courage-free conservatism doesn’t work for me.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.