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1.47% is the average popular vote difference between presidential candidates in the last three electoral inversions (electoral vote winner is not popular vote winner.) There have been four electoral inversions in US history: 2000, 1888, 1876 and 1824. This calculation excludes 1824 because (1) four candidates won electoral votes, (2) the winner was decided by the House of Representatives because no candidate won a majority of the electoral votes, and (3) some states did not conduct popular votes. Summary: 2000: Gore: 48.4%. Bush: 47.9%. Diff.: 0.5%. 1888: Cleveland: 48.6%. Harrison: 47.8%. Diff.: 0.8%. 1876: Tilden: 51.0%. Hayes: 47.9%. Diff.: 3.1%....

The day before the last presidential debate, I speculated here on what states Obama would win. That final debate did not change much: Romney solidified his new status as frontrunner and has continued his momentum. He succeeded in presenting himself as what he in fact is: a plausible, competent candidate, and one, moreover, who has that presidential aura, that indefinable but essential nimbus of authority. Obama, for his part, gave his petulance free rein. As many commentators noted, he seemed more like the challenger than the incumbent: scrappy, impatient, full of bile and vitriol. Unfortunately, for him, Romney got...

Two presidential campaigns are underway: One to win on Election Day, the other to win after it.President Obama and Mitt Romney are each preparing for recounts, confusion over voter-eligibility rules, and even the chance of a tie in the Electoral College. A close election, as this one will almost certainly be, means all three scenarios are on the table.In 2000, it took until Dec. 12 for lawyers and courts to settle on a White House winner. Here are three ways this year’s presidential battle could last long past Nov. 6:RECOUNTSFlorida’s infamous 2000 presidential recount is the first thing that...

Abstract: The National Popular Vote (NPV) plan is the latest in a long line of schemes designed to replace the Electoral College. Imbued with the ideals of this nation’s Founders, the Electoral College has proved itself to be both effective in providing orderly elections for President and resilient in allowing a stable transfer of power of the leadership of the world’s greatest democracy. Therefore, while it would be a mistake to replace the Electoral College, replacing this system with the NPV would be a disaster. The NPV would devalue the minority interests that the Founders sought to protect, create electoral...

All Obama has to do is win every state Kerry won in 2004 plus New Mexico and Ohio, and he ties Romney 269-269. Note that, by current RCP polling averages, this remains plausible. Every safe or leaning state would stay put and the current swing states would be split along 2004 lines, except for Ohio. That means, assuming no electors go "rogue" and vote for the other party, next year the new House picks the President and the new Senate picks the Vice President. In the House, each state gets 1 vote among the top 3 EV vote-getters, virtually guaranteeing...

# Republican campaign sees chance to capitalise on President's struggles # Set to launch new push in states where Obama had double-digit victory # Election likely to come down to Florida, Virginia and above all Ohio Mitt Romney is to travel to Wisconsin, a state Barack Obama won in a 14-point blowout four years ago, as the Republican candidate's surging campaign seeks to expand the 'chessboard' into previously safe Democratic territory. At the same time, the Romney campaign has bought television advertising in the Boston market, which reaches screens in New Hampshire, a state Obama won by almost 10 points...

BOCA RATON, Fla. — The two presidential campaigns are sounding sharply different notes about how they can get to 270 electoral votes, but beneath the post-debate bravado from both sides there is a rough consensus about the shape of the race in its final two weeks. Top strategists for both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney flooded the media center following the third and final presidential debate here Monday night, and made clear they will be primarily fighting over seven states and will spend most of their time and money in them between now and Nov. 6. The main battlegrounds: Ohio,...

There's been a lot of chatter lately about the plausible scenario that Obama and Romney tie in the electoral college. The odds aren't that low. Essentially, here's what would happen. Provided that there are no faithless electors — people selected for the Electoral College who disregard the popular vote in their state and vote for the opponent — the election would be decided in Congress, when each state delegation votes and allocates one vote to a candidate. The first one to amass 26 votes wins. Here's the issue a lot of people are talking about. What if Obama wins the...

Since the debate on Tuesday, which many analysts ceded to President Obama, mainly on strength of his having shown up, the term comeback kid has been getting play among liberal pundits. Yet, this afternoon’s Real Clear Politics Electoral Map suggests goaway kid (or maybe just, “Go away, kid!”) is a more fitting description. The map for the first time gives challenger Mitt Romney a lead of 206 to 201 over Obama in Electoral College votes. Strikingly, the map has Florida (with 29 Electoral votes), Michigan (with 16), Ohio (with 18), Pennsylvania (with 20), Virginia (with 13), and Wisconsin (with 10)...

[SNIP]Not long ago, this hopeful prospect might have seemed impossible for even the most optimistic Republican to imagine. As recently as Oct. 2,a Roanoke College poll reported President Obama leading by 8 points in Virginia, but in the past two weeks,the Old Dominion has shifted sharply toward the GOP challenger. Romney has led five of the seven most recent polls and,although the RCP average for Virginia still shows Obama with razor-thin lead,the Republicans here sense a strong enough momentum to carry them to victory on Nov.6...........The Democrats are evidently shrinking their Electoral College map,in what looks like a defensive "triage"...

By: Atlas Research Team What happens if the Electoral College ends up in a tie? Several people have written about it recently, and while the chances are relatively low, it’s helpful to know what happens if it occurs. In the event of a 269 to 269 tie, the newly elected House of Representatives would be responsible for deciding the outcome of the presidential election. Each state’s delegation in the U.S. House would vote once for President and each U.S. Senator would cast a vote for Vice President. At least in the House, one vote per state means that smaller states have an...

How likely is this, really? History suggests “not very,” unless the race is extremely close. This is because the Electoral College and the popular vote almost always line up reasonably well. It lists presidential races going back to 1952 (prior to 1952, the ensuing exercise is difficult to apply because of the “Solid South”). The second column lists the state from which the candidate who won the popular vote received his 270th electoral vote. That’s a bit abstract, but think of it this way: In 2008, Barack Obama won Washington, D.C., by 86 percentage points, his largest margin of victory...

The possibility that Mitt Romney could win the popular vote while Barack Obama wins the vote in the Electoral College has been discussed throughout this campaign. In recent days, we've seen pieces from Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, Harry Enten and RCP's Scott Conroy exploring the issue. Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina has even referenced the potential discrepancy, urging reporters to look at the state polls rather than the national surveys.How likely is this, really? History suggests "not very," unless the race is extremely close. This is because the Electoral College and the popular vote almost always line up reasonably well.Take...

Washington - A slew of battleground-state polls out Thursday shows a presidential race that has tightened in several key states, echoing national polls that show a bounce for Republican Mitt Romney after his strong debate performance Oct. 3.......All of these states went for Obama four years ago,and if Romney is to unseat the incumbent, he has to win most of them. So, he still has his work cut out for him. The debate Thursday night between Romney’s running mate,Rep. Paul Ryan(R) of Wisconsin, and Vice President Joe Biden is a critical step along the way. Typically,vice presidential debates don’t matter,...

If the presidential election were to play out according to RealClearPolitics' latest polling averages, Mitt Romney would surpass President Obama by 1.0 percent in the nationwide vote. Cue the balloon drop and pop the champagne corks in Boston, right? Not exactly. Under the same current polling scenario, Obama’s relative strength in the battleground states could propel him to victory over Romney in the Electoral College. A candidate has been elected president while losing the popular vote four times in American history (including John Quincy Adams, who in 1824 finished second in the popular vote to Andrew Jackson but was elected...

Rattled, dismayed, and shaken, President Obama's national campaign is divided into two camps: impassive warhorses and anxiety-ridden newbies. The battle-scarred operatives have been doing nonstop psychic triage since the first presidential debate, calming nerves and reassuring the shaken that campaigns have their ups and downs. "This is the first time in this entire campaign some of the new people have seen a bad run," said a senior Obama strategist. "The veterans are telling them they need to ride it out." That became a bit easier around noon on Wednesday when the first patch of internal polls came back from key...

If President Obama wins reelection by three or four Electoral College votes next month, the reason may be simple: noncitizens, mostly immigrants, who don’t have the right to vote. No, I’m not talking about his immigration policy or his popularity with Latinos. Nor does this have anything to do with voter fraud. Rather, an Obama victory could hinge on a quirk in the Constitution that gives noncitizens, a group that includes illegal immigrants and legal permanent residents, a say in electing the president of the United States. As required by Article I and the Fourteenth Amendment, the decennial census, which...

WASHINGTON (AP) — When it comes to electing the president, not all votes are created equal. And chances are yours will count less than those of a select few. For example, the vote of Dave Smith in Sheridan, Wyo., counts almost 3 1/2 times as much mathematically as those of his wife's aunts in northeastern Ohio. Why? Electoral College math. A statistical analysis of the state-by-state voting-eligible population by The Associated Press shows that Wyoming has 139,000 eligible voters — those 18 and over, U.S. citizens and non-felons — for every presidential elector chosen in the state. In Ohio, it's...

(MAP AT LINK) Karl Rove's commentary on this week's Electoral Map updates: "Seven states changed status since last week's Electoral College map, with four moving in Mitt Romney's direction and only three moving toward Barack Obama. "Mr. Romney saw Georgia move from 'lean' to 'safe' Romney, New Hampshire change from 'lean' Obama to 'toss up,' and New Mexico and Pennsylvania both shift from 'safe' to 'lean' Obama. "Mr. Obama saw Oregon shift from 'lean' to 'safe' Obama, Wisconsin change from 'toss up' to 'lean' Obama, and Arizona move from 'safe' Romney to 'lean' Romney. "Mr. Obama is down to 196...

Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Breakdown Safe Romney 178 Likely Romney 3 Leans Romney 15 Toss-up 95 Leans Obama 46 Likely Obama 21 Safe Obama 180 Toss-up-95 CO (9) FL (29) IA (6) MO (10) OH (18) VA (13) WI (10) Leans Romney -15 NC (15) Leans Obama -46 MI (16) NH (4) NV (6) PA (20)