2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, May 19, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 240 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 298 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 248.60 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[Jet Jaguar]

McCain moves 3 down in this weeks episode.

[Always Right]

Too many bogus polls weighing dems too heavily.

[Norman Bates]

True. Rasmussen is the only one I pay attention to at this point.

[Baladas]

Yes, this is interesting, but I’ll put more stock into this when they actually have a name to oppose Juan’s - this looks about right if he’s against Hillary, way misses the mark against Barack Huseein Obama.

[mak5]

Change Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire and you get closer to the truth. By the time this is over, though, Obama loses by Mondale/McGovern proportions.

[GOP_Raider]

Recently I had a nightmare...

...if in this current Electoral College projection, if you give McCain Ohio and Colorado and keep everything else the same, McCain and B. Hussein would be tied at 269.

And you know what that means....

[ErnBatavia]

Rasmussen is the only one I pay attention to at this point.

You haven't studied his creds much, have you? He's been as errant as the rest of 'em in the not too recent past.

[Norman Bates]

I’ve known Rasmussen to be pretty accurate in my view. But educate me. Who do you pay mind?

[incredulous joe]

First I ‘ve seen of these.

I gotta think PA is not going Obama and Minnestota should be closer?

Are they counting on stolen ballots?

[RogerD]

A few comments, under the assumption that Intrade results are meaningful:

1. There are no states that went for Kerry in 2004 and are listed as favoring McCain this year. [Bad news for Republicans]

2. Five states that went for Bush in 2004: Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, and Nevada, are listed as favoring Obama this year. [Again, bad news for Republicans]

3. This is far too early to draw any final conclusions, but my impression is that McCain has a lock on the 216 electoral votes in states where Intrade gives him at least a 70% chance - all states that Bush carried in 2004. Obama probably has a lock on the 217 electoral votes of the states where Intrade gives him at least a 70% chance - all states that Kerry carried in 2004. [Essentially a tie in safe electoral votes]

4. There are only two states with 24 delegates listed for McCain that could be considered "in play", if that is defined as at least a 30% chance on Intrade. Virginia leans toward McCain with 55.3%, and Missouri with 56.5%. The next closest McCain state is Arkansas where Intrade gives McCain a 73.5% chance. On the other side, eight Obama states with a total of 81 delegates are in play under the same definition. McCain is listed with a 49% chance in Nevada, 41% in New Hampshire, 38.5% in Ohio, 37.5% in New Mexico, 37.5% in Colorado, 33% in Pennsylvania, 30% in Wisconsin, and 30% in Iowa. [Bad news because the close states are mostly leaning Obama, but not terrible because Obama has only two more states that he could pick up while he has to defend a lot of close states?]

5. I don't know Intrade's record on predicting states this far in advance. I'd like to hope that media bias would have an effect on their predicted odds, but I don't have evidence either way. [Neutral observation]

6. The "Chaos" factor may not be fully included in these odds, as we don't know how the Hillary voters will react when the likely nominee becomes inevitable. I can't imagine a resolution improving Obama's odds, but a drop in Obama support is easily imaginable. [Finally, something that favors Republicans.]

7. We haven't yet seen McCain giving inspirations speeches that will motivate the Republican base to get out and vote. If that happens (and I know it's a hypothetical), the numbers should swing in McCain's favor in the close states. [The numbers on Intrade do not support this guess, but at least there's a potential for the numbers to change if McCain campaigns as a Republican.]

8. On a personal note, I will continue praying that all patriotic voters will show up in November. Even those who won't vote McCain are needed for the down-ticket races - it's our duty to vote.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Voters on intrade are not really the savvy detail-oriented people that you normally count on to make markets “efficient”. They are more likely the people who, if buying stocks, would listen to Jim Cramer and do whatever he told them, but wait a day first to see if the stock really moved the right direction first. :-)

So surprisingly, the intrade numbers reflect the conventional wisdom as given by a combination of polls and poeple on talk shows who say things like “Colorado is turning Democrat”.

[incredulous joe]

I think good points. We’ve got a ways to go and there are still a lot of variables at play. This is the first real look that I’ve had at an electoral map so far.

While I don’t count on Hilary voters to necessarily close ranks, I think the death cult party will rally to the candidate who favors killing unborn children. Obama was endorsed by NARAL today.

A couple of the unknowns; first as you mentioned, McCain’s potential for inspiring the base (uggh!), Obama’s propensity for stepping in it, finally 527s, which will go after Obama, whether McCain likes it or not.

We have really NOT seen the media’s first haymaker at McCain; his marital infidelity, Keating 5 and the Amnesty Bill. There would also most certainly be an October surprise waiting in the wings, I would expect.

Don’t like the looks of the math right now. A McCain presidency is not to my liking. An Obama presidency will will not have a kind of benignly negative impact on my wallet and my children’s future. I think the impact would be significant.

[RogerD]

While I don’t count on Hilary voters to necessarily close ranks, I think the death cult party will rally to the candidate who favors killing unborn children. Obama was endorsed by NARAL today.

Actually, I'm not so sure on this one. I hate to count on racism as a campaign strategy, but my impression is that quite a large proportion of Dem voters are racists who support affirmative action because they believe "those people" don't have what it takes to make it on a level playing field. Based on the numbers, I expect 10% to 15% of Hillary voters to stay home or vote for the white guy, with their closet racism a higher voting priority than abortion.

A couple of the unknowns; first as you mentioned, McCain’s potential for inspiring the base (uggh!), Obama’s propensity for stepping in it, finally 527s, which will go after Obama, whether McCain likes it or not.

Those are substantial unknowns! I'm clueless on what the attacks on Obama will look like and whether they will succeed. As for McCain, I'm afraid we know what his campaign will look like. ~yawn~

We have really NOT seen the media’s first haymaker at McCain; his marital infidelity, Keating 5 and the Amnesty Bill. There would also most certainly be an October surprise waiting in the wings, I would expect.

I expect the liberal bias to come out in full force. If we're lucky, they'll jump the gun and get caught as they did with Dan Rather's "fake but accurate" attack on George W. Bush. We already know he cheated on his wife and that he took questionable contributions long ago, so I imagine there will be a temptation to 'enhance' the story to make a McCain scandal newsworthy. Otherwise, the October surprise could be enough to nudge the swing states over the line to Obama.

Don’t like the looks of the math right now. A McCain presidency is not to my liking. An Obama presidency will will not have a kind of benignly negative impact on my wallet and my children’s future. I think the impact would be significant.

This is not 2000 or 2004, when I was not terribly concerned about Gore or Kerry. Neither would have been great, but they would not have been the worst in our history either. In contrast, Obama seems at best to have no redeeming qualities beyond delivering empty speeches that sound pretty. This is not the time in our history to take a chance that Obama is no worse than the weak and empty image his consultants are working so hard to manufacture.

[B Knotts]

Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll

July 26, 1988

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

...

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

This represented a shift in Mr. Dukakis's lead from the 47 percent to 41 percent advantage he held in the last pre-convention Gallup Poll, taken by telephone July 8-10. In that poll, 1,001 registered voters were interviewed.

[Political Junkie Too]

Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes.

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
7-Jan	238.97	18.71%
14-Jan	233.05	13.25%
28-Jan	234.30	14.29%
4-Feb	233.98	14.05%
11-Feb	235.06	14.83%
18-Feb	228.13	11.40%
25-Feb	231.28	13.70%
3-Mar	232.06	14.13%
10-Mar	237.80	20.38%
17-Mar	242.13	22.01%
24-Mar	247.56	26.16%
31-Mar	250.11	29.29%
7-Apr	247.15	25.66%
14-Apr	247.19	25.89%
21-Apr	245.81	24.45%
28-Apr	249.85	27.49%
5-May	248.79	26.07%
12-May	250.26	27.37%
19-May	246.73	24.55%

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

While working on my model, I uncovered a small bug that I hadn't noticed before. I was counting Alabama twice and not counting Alaska. Since both these states are going GOP by roughly the same 90%, the differences are negligible. However, this will be corrected in the next tables.

-PJ