Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VIII

NOAA - NHC ^ | 29 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Category 4 Hurricane Katrina is approaching landfall in Eastern Louisiana. At 4:00AM EDT the storm's center was about 90 miles south of New Orleans.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Lake Ponchartrain Real Time Water Level

Wind Speed Data

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

Cut and Paste:

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_khou&props=livenoad

Fully-linked version of the live feeds (just in case a few people don't want to first open up WMP to cut-and-paste) -

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/

1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT

Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast

.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518 WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans via WESH-TV/DT Orlando - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38843.asx

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VII
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VI
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[mrobison]

This is from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D8.html

"Concentric eyewall cycles" (or "eyewall replacement cycle" ) naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones , i.e. major hurricanes (winds > 50 m/s, 100 kt, 115 mph) or Catories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As tropical cyclones reach this threshold of intensity, they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 10 to 25 km [5 to 15 mi]. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger. A concentric eyewall cycle occurred in Hurricane Andrew (1992) before landfall near Miami: a strong intensity was reached, an outer eyewall formed, this contracted in concert with a pronounced weakening of the storm, and as the outer eyewall completely replaced the original one the hurricane reintensified. Another example is Hurricane Allen (1980) which went through repeated eyewall replacement cycles -- going from Categrory 5 to Category 3 status several times. To learn more about concentric eyewall cycles, read Willoughby et al. (1982) and Willoughby (1990a).

[Northern Yankee]

Yep...

The levees will be tested.

May be old news, but ABC just had the mayor of NO on, via telephone, and the mayor is getting word that some of the Levees at Lake Pontchartrain have been breeched.

[Doohickey]

I was in Charleston for that, at the shipyard. Yikes! Lots of stories, but scroll down on this URL http://www.cofc.edu/CGOinquiry/hurricanes.htm to check out before and after shots of the Atlantic House restaurant that was on Folly Beach.

[steveegg]

In eyewall replacement, the storm intensifies, is that correct?

From NOAA - Not as it's being replaced (the hurricane is acutally weakening as the formation of the new eyewall robs energy from the old one). It can, under ideal conditions, emerge at the same strength or even stronger. That's not going to happen with Katrina (at least if I'm guesstimating right based on the radar); much of it is already over land.

The way I read the radar, the north half of the eye is shrinking, while the southern half is trying to re-form at its previous size.

[eastforker]

Not having auxiliary power for those pumps standing by is one of the grossest acts of incompetence.

[11th_VA]

Posts 651-700 had a 'record number' of comments removed by administrator - what's up with that on a huricane thread ???

[Strategerist]

There's an immense amount of mythology about eyewall replacements out there, the source of which I've never been able to determine.

Anyway, I assure you I'm right about this one.

[Esther Ruth]

4 feet of water on Hwy 90 - Biloxi

[LadyBuzz]

I think Shep realizes now that this storm is still packing a punch

[StatenIsland]

"It's because the field is below sea level, and might end up 20 feet under water."

I recall hearing that the entire stadium is about 25 feet ABOVE sea level - one of the reasons they named it as a refuge.

[steveegg]

any special thoughts?....

Thank God Katrina weakened overnight.

[milkncookies]

An eyewall replacement cycle occurs when the outer eyewall weakens the inner eyewall by robbing it of "needed moisture and momentum," he writes in the National Hurricane Center's Frequently Asked Questions about hurricanes guide. Without these necessary ingredients to grow, the inner eyewall will collapse. The outer eyewall then becomes the dominant eyewall, even though it's larger, and the replacement cycle is nearly complete.

The final phase of the cycle is for the new, larger eyewall to begin to contract. As this happens, any weakening that had occurred when the inner eyewall was replaced is almost always regained as the new eyewall contracts.

[cyborg]

disagreements, confrontations and a prophetic announcement

[mware]

Just sent your post to Fox & Friends.

[Coldwater Creek]

Shep is way behind!!!!!!!

[mrobison]

You are wrong about this one.

[Interesting Times]

WAPT-TV now reporting 'structural damage' to the Superdome Roof. Water pumps already out in NOLA...

Not good. An intact Superdome roof was supposed to be proof against 130mph winds, which should be sufficient since the storm is weakening as it contacts land and NO is on the left side. I'd try to find a perimeter wall...

[afnamvet]

Good Morning everyone from the Sacramento area. Prayers for all who are in harm's way of this hurricane.

[LadyBuzz]

Isn't that the mayor's job? - He's incompetent

[mewzilla]

I thought some of the pumps were diesel?