Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
OK, so you’ve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your “investment”, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. You’re going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
https://www.intrade.com/
Which one do you choose?
Let’s start with the guy who has 3 balls. He’s got courage in spades. He’s engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as “the man who broke the sound barrier”, Chuck Yeager. While they’re campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon… and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and they’ll all look at each other & nod, saying, “this is the guy who should be my president”.
Now let’s cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldn’t be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. It’s interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.
Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldn’t screw up.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunter’s contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922644/posts
At that point, everyone will know he’s at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if they’re still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.
Here’s where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.
2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election
At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Fred’s campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.
While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesn’t screw up, Hunter’s supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that he’ll just be himself.
Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.
That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. That’s where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy they’re fighting for is genuine.
All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then we’ll start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether it’s our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunter’s campaign
http://www.gohunter08.com
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.
And then we’ll see Hunter smile.
NEA = National Endowment for the Arts
I just now heard on the radio Bill O’Reilly ask Ann Coulter who her favorite candidate is.
She said DUNCAN HUNTER, and Ann certainly knows who is the most conservative candidate out there.
Huck has the charisma, but not the record to back it up. Hunter has the record with ZERO charisma. Neither is going to win anything, but charisma goes a long way, which is evident by Huck’s rising from the back of the pack.
***The support for Huckabee is coming from frustrated evangelicals. Dobson recently came out ‘vigorously’ denying that he endorsed Huckabee, and he has been silent on Hunter. Just think if he endorsed Hunter this week.
Jill Stanek: Behind the scenes at FRC Briefing (Family Research Council)
WorldNetDaily ^ | 10/24/07 | Jill Stanek
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1915901/posts
Posted on 10/24/2007 4:11:29 PM PDT by wagglebee
Generalized outcomes of the meeting:
Most in the room supported Mike Huckabee. A few important figures supported Duncan Hunter.
“You need charisma AND the record to back it up. Rudy doesn’t have both, Romney doesn’t have both, Huckabee doesn’t have both. They’re all missing the record. (Actually, I think Romney is missing both charisma AND a record and Rudy’s charisma is questionable at best.)”
Define Charisma. Its not Charisma that is Hunters problem, its name recognition. I’m not looking to vote for someone to throw their shirt off and show me their boobs, i’m voting for someones record.
I have watched Duncan on film and live. He has a command of the facts and the issues that he is strongest in. But he plays too few of them. Watching his debates and such it is China and Immigration almost all the time, with little Iraq tossed in. Important issues yes indeed. But this is not a congressional run, and he sounds like he is running in his district not nation wide. The guys in the big show have to play to a much larger audience than the core of staunch Conservatives. There are fiscal conservatives, social conservatives and the like, plus those in the middle we have to woo. Also there are dozens of issues that concern them.
If the election was just Free Republic or for conservative of the year, Duncan could score that in a heartbeat, but we are too few in number to make that translate into a national win. We have to win over the middle, and they do not want to be preached to, they want to be sold. Duncan is a great conservative preacher, but his sales skills need refining.
Another thing, while I know he has put out statements on his web site and such on a number of issues, he has to actually play on all those issues publicly as much as possible.
Also I have said often that this is a political game and after 27 years in the house Duncan has not really stood out. It is past the time that most politicians who end up as national players have broken out. I am told it is because he "does not bow down" or "does not play politics". Well guess what, the game the left and the middle have brought us is politics, so to win it we have to be in it. Otherwise we are just those whiny folks over on the fringe arguing with the wind.
As far as evidence, it is all simple observation. Where has he been the past 27 years, why has he not gained more notoriety and where is he in the polls after a year of being in the race. Blame the press or whatever, but a politician is responsible for his own destiny as much as anyone. To try and pass it off as some conspiracy or the like does him and his efforts a disservice, because it grants a scapegoat, not a solution, which in the end is what you are after, getting it fixed and moving up to victory.
The age old question. Hunter hasn’t been able to generate support. If I vote for him and am with 4% or 5% of the voters, what good does that do? Candidates with that level of support will be gone very soon and your vote will have been wasted.
***No, it would not be wasted. Your voice will not be heard if you do not speak and choose to lend your voice to another because he looks like he has a crowd. Stand strong, use your own voice and ask around to others to see if they think Hunter is a good guy. And read up what the Intrade folks have to say about both candidates. Make your choice wisely, that’s all someone should ask.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
The candidates must be able to generate support, good ideas are essential, but good ideas without support do not really mean a lot. Hunters organization at the straw here was embarrassing, it was almost nonexistent. I say the organization, not the candidate.
***I think his organization reflects the current level of assets that he has been dealt. He’s playing the card he’s been dealt and he’s doing it as best he can. Thompson, on the other hand, had a poker hand with 2 pair and broke it up to go after a Straight.
His message is good, he sounds good in the debates.
***Then vote for him. It’s just you in that voting booth.
Posting on internet message boards supporting a candidate is one thing, but actually putting an organization together and getting people to vote for you is another thing entirely.
***You can help here. He needs your support and he will not squander it.
This is for everyone -
You all DO know that McCain is Pro-Life, don’t you??
Oh good grief. I’m talking about a necessary combination of charisma and a record to back it up and you respond by daydreaming about an endorsement that won’t happen and wouldn’t matter a damn if it did.
Huckabee’s support could be frustrated evangelicals, but the reason they are going for Huckabee is because he’s got a personality that draws them to him. He’s good with one-liners, says the right things, and gives very good, rousing speeches. If Hunter did any of that, he would have beaten Huckabee at Ames and would be in the running now.
It’s well beyond the point where a single person’s endorsement can save Hunter’s campaign.
$1,000 burning a hole in my pocket? Not since I’ve had children :P
***Same here. Pray for me also because my job is going off line right before Christmas. This could be a tough one for the kiddies.
-Club For Growth is a treacherous Libertarian organization who wants to sell American jobs to the lowest bidder.
-National Taxpayers Union gave Hunter A’s before the Iraq war. Would you prefer Hunter join with the Democrats and stop funding the Iraq war? Thats what ruined Hunters record and dropped it from an A to a C, because he is part of the House Armed Services Committee, and so therefore, after 2001 he started receiving C’s.
***Thanks for this response, it’s concise and thoughtful. Bookmark for later reference.
I define charisma as the ability to captivate people into following you. If Hunter didn’t lack that ability, he would be where Huckabee is now, plain and simple.
I know you guys all know it. It’s why so many Hunter supporters resort to browbeating people.
“Only its better than Freds.
Not according to the National Taxpayer’s Union, who consistently scored Thompson higher than Hunter.”
How much higher score did Thompson score then Hunter? How exactly does the NTU calculate this stuff anyways?
http://www.ntu.org/main/page.php?PageID=97
^^this is jibberish^^^
Thompson(R) gets an A at +3.1 billion spending, and Bill Richardson(D) gets an F at -1.6 billion spending. Huh? Duh? This makes absolutely no sense it is jibberish. How is this stuff calculated anyways?
Hunter gets B’s when there is no war, I’m happy, lalala. See i’m smiling.
This fiscal stuff is TOO complicated and involved for me OR YOU to make a gross conclusion about any candidate other then Democrats spend much more then Republicans.
By the way, I’ve been quite clear on what I am saying. I am not advocating a ‘cult of personality’. I am CLEARLY saying that charisma PLUS A RECORD TO RUN ON are the two things that a candidate needs to be successful.
Let’s look at why Hunter doesn’t have name recognition for a second. Huckabee didn’t have any name recognition before Ames. Why wasn’t Hunter able to do the same?
I agree with you, Pistolshot, that the NRTL endorsement is a boost for Fred. I only wish they would have endorsed Hunter. Maybe they’ll realize their error ;-)
Oh God, I’m sorry to hear that Kevmo! I will add you and your family to my prayers.
Club for Growth’s ratings ... it is actually a mark of fiscal responsibility to acknowledge that war has cost. Every single war we have ever fought has been accomplished by revenue enhancing features
***Hey, good post, Mogambo. Thanks for the healthy dialog. If you don’t get an answer from Hunterite (I have my hands full) I’ll ask more of Hunter’s Rangers to address it.
Has anyone pinged the Hunter list? I’m busier than a 1-armed paper-hanger.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.