(vanity) Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter

Self ^ | 11/11/07 | Kevmo

[Kevmo]

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter

OK, so you’ve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your “investment”, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. You’re going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
https://www.intrade.com/
Which one do you choose?

Let’s start with the guy who has 3 balls. He’s got courage in spades. He’s engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as “the man who broke the sound barrier”, Chuck Yeager. While they’re campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon… and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and they’ll all look at each other & nod, saying, “this is the guy who should be my president”.

Now let’s cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldn’t be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. It’s interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.

Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldn’t screw up.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunter’s contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922644/posts
At that point, everyone will know he’s at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if they’re still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.

Here’s where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.

2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election

At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.

2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008

The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Fred’s campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.

While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesn’t screw up, Hunter’s supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that he’ll just be himself.

Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284

According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.

That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. That’s where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy they’re fighting for is genuine.

All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then we’ll start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether it’s our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunter’s campaign
http://www.gohunter08.com
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.

And then we’ll see Hunter smile.

[Kevmo]

these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.

Jim Noble: And therefore the most likely to lose in November.
***Ouch. The republican party continues its centrist march off a liberal cliff with each passing day, even right here on Free Republic. Ouch.

[Kevmo]

Thanks. I do sincerely hope that Hunter wins the nomination because he would be the best president out of all the contenders.

[Kevmo]

Thanks guys:

pissant; Earthdweller ; Hunterite;

for taking that item.

Hopefully puddleglum gets his questions answered.

[Kevmo]

Freds name recognition will keep him alive until his advertising and debates starts boosting his numbers.
***That’s just it, his debates should have boosted his numbers but once people have taken a look, his numbers have gone down in polls and on Intrade. Hunter’s poll numbers are slowly inching upward and soon Intrade should follow suit.

[kevkrom]

if Hunter gets to 4% on Intrade, reflecting his current polling status

You're still incorrectly conflating support numbers with probabilities. Even if the obvious 4% outlier were accurate, Hunter still has an approximately zero chance of winning the nomination, as is reflected in his stagnant and marginal "price" on Intrade.

[Kevmo]

Mogambo: “Duncan’s record on spending is abysmal. Simple as that.”

Hunterite: Really? Prove it.
***Thanks for taking that, Hunterite. I have my hands full.

[Kevmo]

So when I go vote January 3rd in the Iowa caucus; should I support Hunter (who I like) who only has 4-5% support?
That’s the big question.
***Absolutely. Because he is the better man.

The straw poll votes we had here in August didn’t matter as much; but this one picks our party’s nominee for the state.
***And Hunter deserves that nomination. Look at his record. He’s no johnny-come-lately on the big 3 hot-button items of immigration, WOT, Pro-life. Go with the candidate who reflects your vision of America rather than the MSM’s version of it.

[Sun]

Laura Ingraham was saying the other day that this is the primary time, and it’s time to see what we’re made of.

Conservatives need to FIGHT for the best candidate, DUNCAN HUNTER, or we’re going to end up with a globalist and a candidate that is soft on the life issue.

Duncan Hunter voted AGAINST Permanent Trade with Red China. McCain and Thompson voted FOR it, and now we have an approximately $250 BILLION trade imbalance EACH YEAR with Red China - more money for Red China to buy missles and all kinds of weapons to use against our friends and us some day.

Duncan Hunter has the highest COMMITMENT to the life issue. He introduces the personhood-at-concetion bill each year, and Duncan Hunter and Brownback were the only presidential candidates to attend the pro-life march in Washington, D.C. Where were the others that day?

We get the government we deserve.

Fight for Duncan Hunter with all you’ve got for the sake of our morals and our sovereignty.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

You need charisma AND the record to back it up. Rudy doesn’t have both, Romney doesn’t have both, Huckabee doesn’t have both. They’re all missing the record. (Actually, I think Romney is missing both charisma AND a record and Rudy’s charisma is questionable at best.)

Whether you have charisma and a crappy record or a great record and no charisma, you’re still missing 50% of what you need to close the deal.

Think what you want about underdogs, but the media doesn’t pay attention to Hunter because he gives them no reason to.

[Kevmo]

Thanks, Pistolshot. Your post is a question about the efficacy of the prediction markets so I will copy it over on that thread.

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

[pissant]

Only its better than Freds.

[Kevmo]

I answered your post over on the efficacy thread.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1922961/posts?page=41#41

[normy]

I don't think its sleazy. Whats sleazy is having a way to end abortion and save countless lives in states already prepared to outlaw abortion. Having a way to stop abortion in purple states by using grassroots efforts to force local gov'ts to outlaw it therefore reducing abortion down to only a handful of states but people not willing to back that approach nor give a better solution or even a candidate.

In other words the same people angry at the millions of lives lost in America due to abortion are not willing to stop half of them now and work to stop the other half over the next years. Think of how many abortions would be stopped if the issue went back to the states.

When people question someone who has been staunchly pro life their whole political career because they have a different approach to ending abortion than they do, it frankly makes me sick.

[kevkrom]

Only its better than Freds.

Not according to the National Taxpayer's Union, who consistently scored Thompson higher than Hunter.

[normy]

i like Hunter, I even sent him some money a month or so ago but I also like Fred. I really don't see much different in the two besides their life story.

I have been moving toward Fred since the debates.

[Kevmo]

Interesting points. I think Hunterite is well equipped to take them on, I have my hands full.

One minor note on the
03 drug prescription plans,
is that this was a big deal in Floriduh where there are a lot of retirees, and we all know how important that state was in both elections. It’s unfortunate to suggest that some compromises are worth it and some aren’t, but my radar is set to immigration, WOT/Military, Right to Life, protecting American Jobs and Character. The back & forth deals on spending do not interest me as much, so I think it’s good to have that discussion with Hunterite.

[processing please hold]

Here's what The Federalist has to say about it.

Lautenberg Domestic Confiscation gun ban

Certainly the worst sin Thompson has committed against the Second Amendment was voting for this amendment to the aforementioned Treasury-Postal appropriations bill. It removed the right to own firearms from anyone convicted of domestic violence. CAF of course sensationalizes this by stating that spanking your child could cause you to lose your guns. This is an incredible leap considering spanking is legal in all states. While this is a disappointment, no candidate is perfect.

[pissant]

I know. They are mistaken. They consider votes against WTO/NAFTA/PNTR as negatives. And they include defense and border security spending, which should be excluded, but is not.