Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
OK, so you’ve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your “investment”, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. You’re going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
https://www.intrade.com/
Which one do you choose?
Let’s start with the guy who has 3 balls. He’s got courage in spades. He’s engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as “the man who broke the sound barrier”, Chuck Yeager. While they’re campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon… and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and they’ll all look at each other & nod, saying, “this is the guy who should be my president”.
Now let’s cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldn’t be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. It’s interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.
Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldn’t screw up.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunter’s contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922644/posts
At that point, everyone will know he’s at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if they’re still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.
Here’s where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.
2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election
At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Fred’s campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.
While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesn’t screw up, Hunter’s supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that he’ll just be himself.
Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.
That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. That’s where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy they’re fighting for is genuine.
All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then we’ll start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether it’s our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunter’s campaign
http://www.gohunter08.com
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.
And then we’ll see Hunter smile.
IF they succeed in blocking him...
..I will write in his name on the ballot.
I am sick of the game playing, I am sick of the 'top tier' pretending they speak for me....(they don't)..
I am sick of the lies and the threats.
If Duncan doesn't make it, I am through with politics, because my own Republican Party has managed to instill distrust that few, IF ANY, are honorable and honest anymore.
I will turn my attentions to protecting my family against whatever comes.
Well said. Same here bump.
“By the way, I’ve been quite clear on what I am saying. I am not advocating a ‘cult of personality’. I am CLEARLY saying that charisma PLUS A RECORD TO RUN ON are the two things that a candidate needs to be successful.
Let’s look at why Hunter doesn’t have name recognition for a second. Huckabee didn’t have any name recognition before Ames. Why wasn’t Hunter able to do the same?”
Probably because Huckabee is controversial. I’m not impressed by his speeches, I don’t understand how others are. Maybe its because Huckabee is one of the few Republicans who are liberal spenders then the “electability theory” kicks in.
This is me wondering out loud.
I am not trying to be disagreeable with you, obviously we are on the same page, but I frankly do question it and here's why.
Hunter is a fine man and would be a great President and he has a record of being pro life. The same could be said about Fred Thompson, right? So why would someone decide to impugn Freds credibility, not mine, on abortion and not inform us of what they want done.
Maybe I'm hot because one issue voters are so picky that they would trash someone pro life just because they think he isn't pro life in the right way. That makes so little sense there has to be another explanation.
The media is going to play games with all politicians, even the Democrats, though to a lesser degree than us(except they seem to be beating on Hildabeast now).
Again they will try and make them all look bad, focusing on the ones they see as the biggest threat. It is up to the candidate to smack that back and take a little control.
Hunter has to see the very weakness they exploited, that he appears to focused and narrow, then play out of that.
Huckabee is ‘controversial’? How? I like his speeches. It’s his record that I think is totally unacceptable.
My theory is that there are a small number of folks that are more predisposed to Hunter’s method of speaking, which is very cold and full of rattled off statistics, read off like a laundry list. The problem with this is that, while it may be pleasing to that small number of folks, it really doesn’t do much for the public at large.
Yes, the man has a good record. Yes, he’s right on just about every position he’s taken. It is unfortunate that he lacks the ability to excite enough people to rally around him. If he had that ability, he’d have the name recognition necessary to be a real contender.
Listen newbie, you need to read the congressional record to determine who spent what on what.
Start here.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1898585/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1924826/posts?page=138#138
While it might be nice to get an official endorsement from these organizations, the organizations risk losing members by endorsing candidates who do not adequately reflect their articulated mission-especially when candidates with stronger records are ignored.
***Good point.
Look at Pat Robertson’s endorsement of Rudy. Do you think everyone watching the 700 Club is gonna support Rudy because of it? More likely, they are scratching their heads, trying to figure out what kind of deal was made.
Tons of essays and editorials have already flown through the info. circuits questioning that.
***Another good point. But it may be too late, the cat’s out of the bag on this NRTL one.
I believe credibility will be key in this election. If people cannot support their current positions with their past records, words, and deeds, they will not be seen as credible.
***I think we are right at the cusp, the threshold of whether credibility will be key in this election. There are so many republicans who want to go the lazy route and worship at the altar of name recognition because it’s less work. But they have not learned the lesson of aRINOld in Cahleforneeya, we are actually worse off with a RINO than with a democrat. If we do not see poll numbers for Rudy start to take a dive soon, your point will be moot.
Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
See your own tagline!
Funny, I did not see Hunterite mention education in that statement. He said the NEA. Which you assumed to mean the National Ed. Association.
This anti-abortion group endorsement means nothing.
Would the Temperance movement be satisfied with letting the states decide it? NO! Before prohibition about half of the states already abolished alcohol.
When this anti-abortion group endorsed Mister Federalism Thompson then they are not very serious. (personally I don’t care that much about abortion, although I think partial birth abortion is barbairic. I’m just trying to make a point.)
If half of the states had abortion legalized and half of the states didn’t, then all someone would have to do is hop in their car and drive to a state which had abortion legal.
That and the little fact that all presidential candidates except McCain and Rudy scored perfect scores, just like Thompson.
I am beginning to think the pro life movement doesn’t really want to end abortion.
***And we Duncanistas are called conspiracy theorists in the face of that kind of post? Maybe you’re just throwing it out to see if someone will react to it, I don’t know. But I have trouble believing that you honestly believe this.
Heck yes you should vote for Hunter in the Iowa caucus if you like him best. That’s how a candidate breaks out is a surprisingly good showing early.
“Funny, I did not see Hunterite mention education in that statement. He said the NEA. Which you assumed to mean the National Ed. Association.”
lol. THE NATIONAL EDUCATIONAL SOMETHING OR THE OTHER (TNESOTO) leave me alone.
Nice understatement. It’s been at 0.1 (dollars per share, not percent) since early July, not just “the last few weeks”.
***Thanks for the correction. I’ve only been following Intrade for the last few weeks, so I can’t tell how far back that goes, but that is the number to keep an eye on. It’s still 27778.
The volume looks to be total shares traded ever, not on a daily basis. Looking at the advanced graphing link, one can easily see that there has been no appreciable activity on the contract AT ALL since mid-October, and the trade price still remained constant at 0.1 even then.
***Sounds about right. The big problem with this contract is liquidity. People who buy it and want to go do something else with their money can’t sell it at even a modest profit. If there is a sudden injection of liquidity into this contract, we will see it hit a reasonable value, which I perceive to be around the same as what Hunter polls but that’s just my perception.
I do note, however, that there now appear to be more (by about 7 to 8 percent) shares available today at 0.1 (the minimum trading price) than there were a couple of days ago,
***How can you find that out? I don’t see how you get to that kind of screen. Here’s a snapshot of the current ask & bid:
ASK
Price Qty
0.1 639
0.2 742
0.3 375
0.4 300
0.5 152
which means interest in Hunter is actually fading on the market, and that people are trying to dump shares if anyone will buy them.
***Cool. Someone could make money on Hunter by supporting him. Double cool. Thanks for the post. I might want to ask you some more questions about Intrade in the future.
That is one of the saddest graphs I’ve ever seen.
You meant the education association? Oh well, he may not be able to eliminate that turd, but here is there rating for him in 2005/2006:
National Education Association
CA___U.S. House___52____Duncan Hunter____Republican: 0
I too am “trying to make a difference” a POSITIVE difference. And as far as I am concerned, Duncan Hunter, while a good man, and acceptable to me as a nominee, is far from the most conservative candidate in the field, and he is a terrible campaigner. He is going absolutely nowhere.
***Hunter is slowly, slowly rising in the polls and Fred is rapidly declining in the polls. Hunter has stayed at 0.1 at Intrade while Thompson has lost 30 freeping points over there. Thompson is the terrible campaigner. If our guy had that kind of resources he’d be kicking around the tootyfruit. Instead we see Thompson picking on 2nd tier Huckabee as a “Prolife liberal”. It’s time for Thompson to drop and give Hunter a chance.
The same thing is true of another man I respect and admire, Tom Tancredo.
***I have not been following Tancredo. I would hope that when he drops he gives his support to Hunter, which seems obvious to me but I’ve seen so many obvious things go the opposite way lately that I wonder if this is still the GOP.
The sooner these men drop out and endorse someone with a chance of winning, the greater their influence will actually be in the party and in the race.
***The sooner Thompson drops out due to his squandering of campaign resources and exposure, the better for the real rock-ribbed conservative in the race, and for conservatives in the party.
Now, I’d like to ask you, but I don’t think you would like to answer, and I respect that, but I’m curious. If Tancredo and Hunter should both drop out, who from among the remaining field whould you think they would or should endorse?
***I would vote for Thompson. And if Thompson drops out or gets a phone call from his doctor about cancer and makes a family decision, who would you think?
>I see this as a “practice run” for him. He’ll be a real contender down the road.
This is no practice run! He is a real contender today! This is a do it now or forget about it, because there will be no second chance for a traditional conservative in the North American Union. There are no laurels to rest upon! If we miss electing Duncan Hunter in 08, we will only have ourselves to blame for the consequences!
Duncan wants to abolish the NEA anyways.
***Really? That will piss off some liberals. Isn’t the NEA a private organization?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.