Posted on 06/02/2008 3:51:41 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 293 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 248.98 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
Ohio slanted to the dems?
Not a good sign.
Rassmussen has it 200(d) to 189(r). It is a very close race and the 38 Toss-Up states will decide it as always. Connecticut just moved from presumed Dem to leaning Dem in Rassmussan’s polls. That’ type of movement doesn’t show in the Intrade.
Intrade, in my experience, is not so good at elections this far out. They will claim some fabulous ability to project, but it’s based on something like 7 days before the election. Lots can and will happen between now and then.
1. New Mexico or Colorado? Doesn't seem too likely to me. Colorado has trended more and more blue for a couple of decades. Too many voters from California moving there, and not changing their voting habits. Also, too many illegal aliens there somehow voting with bogus ID's.
2. New Hampshire? Maybe - only about 4 EV's, though
3. New Jersey? Not honkin' likely. Perhaps not impossible, though, but pretty unlikely.
4. It boils down to the upper Mid-West. Again. If McCain can't get any of the EV's for Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, or Pennsylvania, he's toast. If he can somehow win any 2 of these states, he will most likely sneak in. If he wins 3 of them, he's a shoe in.
>Lots can and will happen between now and then.
Agreed. And I intend to make some of it happen this Fall.
Rassmussan has Mcain ahead in Ohio by 1pt in his most recent polls. That puts it into the “tossup” category.
Remember, campaigns can presumably spend money to try to influence InTrade and Rassmussan’s equiv. It’s all based on who buys the futures contracts. If you are a web-savvy Obama campaign why not drop a few thousand to make it look good in Ohio, or the whole damn map for that matter.
That’s another reason I don’t take those markets very seriously.
Rassmussans poll based map is still the best, IMHO.
He has a chance to turn one, maybe two of these with a good choice at VP.
Not that I'm a huge fan, but Romney can certainly put Michigan in play.
Actually, I'd rather see Mitt at the top of the ticket, but with McCain at the top, the bar is set pretty low.
I’ll aruge with Ohio. Rassmussan has McCain ahead there. I didn’t check out the rest but it really looks like the Donks are throwing these intrade things. Could be as accurate as a well-Freeped web-poll.
What did this poll say in early June in the last two elections?
Rassmussan has McCain ahead in Michigan, by 1 point.
Rassmussan has McCain ahead in Michigan, by 1 point.
Rassmussan has Obama ahead by three points in Penn. (Hillary was ahead by 11. God the Donks are stupid.)
Rassmussan has Obama ahead by three points in Penn. (Hillary was ahead by 11. God the Donks are stupid.)
It’s not a poll!! It’s a market. You buy shares of “futures” and the split is determined by the price of the “Obama contract”. Eventually it gets pretty good. This far out it’s not super meaningful, in my opinion. There is no attempt to model anything. Definately not a poll, more like a web poll, and one that doesn’t prevent multiple votes from a single IP address. Of course you could lose money buying bad contracts, but as I’ve posited: so what. Obama has $100 million to blow on the election. Spending $500,000 on futures contracts to pump up his numbers is just a calculated PR expenditure.
Maybe Ohio will "return to its roots." Maybe not...
I think the word “projections” is a poor choice of description of what in-trade is providing. I prefer “odds” as it is traders (punters) who are making these numbers move, not voters in a model, which is the usual use of the term “projection”.
I think you do a disservice by adding supposed weight to this with that title. Posting the description in the comments, however, is very good and fair.
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