Posted on 06/30/2008 5:24:01 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 216 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 322 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 234.84 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
Bump
We have all read the actuarial data that suggests that democracies have a life span of around 200 years...we are witnessing a demonstration of that very fact. We live in interesting times, once you get through all the steps of loss, there is entertainment to be had. Try telling the youths of today what is was like to grow up in the ‘50’s, it just doesn’t compute for them.
comment - we’re boned. I just have to get used to the beheadings.
Then let the insurrection begin........!
I couldn’t agree more but I fear there may not be enough of us.
We’re here.
I refuse to believe a smooth-talking Marxist liar is beating an opportunistic turncoat RINO so badly. Oh, wait a minute...
He’s not.
Intrade is a very inefficient market for political items, because political items by their nature have little accumulated knowledge, and are also beset by wishful thinkers.
Yeah, what was that little thing that the Founding Fathers came up with? I know! A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the People to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.
I don’t get this website. It’s just a web-pole? Hardly a representative sample.
How has intrade performed in past election cycles?
How good were their predictions in 2004 this far out?
It may seem like a web poll, but people are betting real money on the outcomes. Think of it as Vegas odds for elections.
Also while I'm thinking of it, if you're bored this summer, check out the late William Rehnquist's tome Centennial Crisis: The Disputed Election of 1876. Particularly at how the Democrats behaved back then as opposed to, say, the past 8 years.
Here’s how Scott Rasmussen, a national pollster has it at this point, based on actual polling data:
“The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Barack Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while John McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, Obama leads 284-240. On Monday, June 30, Colorado moved from Toss-Up to Leans Democratic and Virginia moved from Leans Republican to Toss-Up.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update
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