2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, July 7, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 216 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 322 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 235.07 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

[Momaw Nadon]

[Jet Jaguar]

Bump

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[San Jacinto]

According to the traders, McCain now getting trounced in all swing states

[Patrick1]

We’re doomed, doomed I say!!

What a bunch of crap.

[C210N]

The leftists of this country play like children, and results will have very adult consequences. They commandeer the press, the universities, schools, unions, government workers; and after all that, like a bully at the schoolyard, make sure they steal the color blue right from under the republicans, while sticking them with red.

[Big E]

It seemed like one of the advantages to nominating a ‘moderate’ like McCain, is that he would run competitively in heretofore unreachable States like Pennsylvania, California, and Michigan. Well? Sure doesn't look like that's happening.

Frankly, I think it's because McCain is a terrible candidate, so to me it's no surprise he trails. I'm having a tough time seeing scenarios where McCain wins.

[Michael.SF.]

Well, there is always reality to deal with.

[Ingtar]

I expect there is a McCain effect too. It seems as if McCain usually polls better than he fares. I’m not so sure the Bradley effect applies as much... the Obamassiah transcends race, don’t you know.

[oh8eleven]

Where was Reagan vs. Carter at this point?

[Momaw Nadon]

Where was Reagan vs. Carter at this point?

That's a good question. I wonder where polls from the 1980 Election can be found.

[proudpapa]

Need more info:

What percentage of these gamblers are democrats, liberals, independants, republicans, conservatives?

I suspect that those who gamble w/ intrade are mostly to the left.

[Norman Bates]

It’s the scenario that is actually playing out - it’s called keeping one’s powder dry, or not shooting until one’s sees the whites of the enemy’s eyes. There is a wealth of opposition research on Obama his past, his record, statements, associations, and votes. That Obama has not been taken to task yet on a single one of his many highly controversial votes is telling. Americans don’t really know the true Barack Obama. By November they will have been given a real taste.

[Norman Bates]

First, some of the numbers are really off. One glaring example: McCain is given about the exact same percentage of winning Iowa and/or Maine, which is about 16 or 17%. Yet Obama is up very big in Maine according to Rasmussen and he is up only 6 points or so in Iowa which indicates it is still very much in play (given that McCain is averaging a 5-6 point deficit nationally among Rasmussen and Gallop).

[Norman Bates]

Another: McCain is given only a 9% chance in Washingtonf which according to a Democrat-sponsored poll he was again only trailing by 6 or so points, yet he is given a better chance of winning Maine or Vermont.

[Norman Bates]

LOL, maybe it’s time to buy Washington state McCain futures!

[Norman Bates]

Not necessarily true. I'd say more likely McCain surges quickly where he campaigns. Evidence the MA primary where he trailed Romney by over 30% and ended within 10% just days later.

[Momaw Nadon]

And what’s up with Montana this week?

Only 64.9% for McCain???