Posted on 07/14/2008 6:01:20 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 227 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 311 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 237.43 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
I have one question. Does this stuff really matter ?
Most people say that this data is as valid as polls at this point in the election cycle. Think of it as the Vegas odds of which candidate will win what state's Electoral Votes. YMMV.
That is McCain's path to victory.
Looks like you can make you some money if you are correct.
Not at all. This map is crap.
complete garbage and meaningless. its like a game for the bored.
That is McCain's path to victory.
The Mormon population in Colorado and Nevada would be of specific help in these two states. Romney's ability to talk credibly of the economy would help in OH. MI isn't far behind OH as a possibility, and Romney has the favorite-son, and economy credibility there as well.
If McCain doesn't pick Romney, the only reason is McCain's vanity and ego at not wanting to be upstaged. He will then all the more deserve the loss he's got coming.
Obama will win D.C. and maybe Hawaii.
| Week | GOP Electoral Votes |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|
| 7-Jan | 241.05 | 20.18% |
| 14-Jan | 235.29 | 14.70% |
| 21-Jan | 234.76 | 14.66% |
| 28-Jan | 236.58 | 15.44% |
| 4-Feb | 236.26 | 15.41% |
| 11-Feb | 237.25 | 16.43% |
| 18-Feb | 230.61 | 12.69% |
| 25-Feb | 233.56 | 15.44% |
| 3-Mar | 234.54 | 16.27% |
| 10-Mar | 240.26 | 22.49% |
| 17-Mar | 244.58 | 24.60% |
| 24-Mar | 249.73 | 28.50% |
| 31-Mar | 252.18 | 30.87% |
| 7-Apr | 248.97 | 27.60% |
| 14-Apr | 249.24 | 27.62% |
| 21-Apr | 247.86 | 25.60% |
| 28-Apr | 251.65 | 29.06% |
| 5-May | 250.84 | 28.07% |
| 12-May | 252.31 | 29.25% |
| 19-May | 248.73 | 25.99% |
| 26-May | 250.15 | 27.10% |
| 2-Jun | 248.98 | 26.46% |
| 9-Jun | 247.87 | 26.81% |
| 16-Jun | 248.41 | 26.06% |
| 23-Jun | 233.92 | 15.76% |
| 30-Jun | 234.84 | 16.21% |
| 14-Jul | 237.43 | 19.14% |
-PJ
Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada and Ohio are going to be challenges for Hussein in 2008. I think McCain could take those...
Fulcrum State analysis implicitly believes that any McCain improvement among the states is highly correlated, a proposition I believe to be true.
The post-clinch Obama bounce is over. Over the past couple of weeks, McCain has bottomed out and has actually seen marginal improvement in the Fulcrum State analysis. There is no doubt that Sen. McCain is in a deep hole, though. McCain needs to win five states (Nevada, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, and New Mexico) that he is currently losing. (Virginia?!)
| Date | Fulcrum State | Percentage |
| July 14, 2008 | New Mexico | 31.2 |
| July 7, 2008 | New Mexico | 30.0 |
| June 30, 2008 | New Mexico | 29.3 |
| June 23, 2008 | Colorado | 32.8 |
| June 16, 2008 | New Mexico | 36.5 |
| June 9, 2008 | New Mexico | 38.0 |
| June 2, 2008 | Colorado | 37.6 |
| May 26, 2008 | New Mexico | 37.6 |
| May 19, 2008 | Colorado | 37.5 |
| May 12, 2008 | New Hampshire | 41.0 |
| May 5, 2008 | Ohio | 36.8 |
| April 28, 2008 | Ohio | 38.1 |
| April 21, 2008 | Ohio | 38.5 |
| April 14, 2008 | Ohio | 39.5 |
| April 7, 2008 | Ohio | 38.3 |
| March 31, 2008 | Ohio | 37.3 |
| March 24, 2008 | Michigan | 39.0 |
| March 17, 2008 | Ohio | 39.0 |
| March 10, 2008 | Ohio | 39.0 |
| March 3, 2008 | New Hampshire | 29.5 |
| February 25, 2008 | New Hampshire | 30.8 |
| February 18, 2008 | Ohio | 28.0 |
| February 11, 2008 | New Hampshire | 29.5 |
| February 4, 2008 | Ohio | 28.5 |
| January 28, 2008 | New Hampshire | 27.5 |
| January 21, 2008 | Ohio | 27.5 |
| January 14, 2008 | Ohio | 27.5 |
| January 7, 2008 | Maine | 29.5 |
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