Posted on 08/04/2008 9:48:35 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 227 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 311 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 234.45 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
Wow. Looking back even a month ago, numbers in the McCain column have really increased. SSShhhh. Don’t tell the Dems.
Obama will not carry Virginia. With or without the Eyebrow.
McCain has to concentrate on the rustbelt—Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Looks like there may be some bargains to be had on InTrade.
The 311-227 is unchanged for 4 weeks, if I recall correctly.
They don’t know, do they.
Fortunately, projections do not count in determining the outcome of any election. They only serve in forcing upon the underdog either a determination to strive even more greatly, or collapse the incentive to attempt to go for it altogether, and retreat pre-emptively.
To those who may be in the lead, there is the deadly danger of complacency, or possibly, a warm glow while basking in the love of the majority, and a comfortable sense of not being forced to change anything except what you want to, without having to wait for the consent of the minority.
There are still a number of key questions that are not being asked.
Pissed off Hillary supporters can flip Michigan to McCain and send a HUGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGE message to the DNC.
That is correct. Although, Nevada has been flipping back and forth within the past week.
Sorry but these numbers don’t reflect reality. The last Ras had McCain BLOWING Obama away in Ohio. We have a much better than 30% chance of taking Michigan and NH, and Obama is not going to win Virginia.
I hope that you are right.
I just copy and paste the numbers once per week.
Don't shoot the messenger! ;-)
VERY NICE!!!
How did you do that?
Animation shop 3, fairly old program.
I could add dates, make it easier to view.
I could add dates, make it easier to view.
AWESOME!!!
Could you slow down the frame rate a bit?
Yeah, hang on, will take a few minutes.
I screwed up somewhere and have to redo part of it. Will be longer than I thought. It skipped frames
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