Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
OK, so you’ve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your “investment”, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. You’re going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
https://www.intrade.com/
Which one do you choose?
Let’s start with the guy who has 3 balls. He’s got courage in spades. He’s engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as “the man who broke the sound barrier”, Chuck Yeager. While they’re campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon… and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and they’ll all look at each other & nod, saying, “this is the guy who should be my president”.
Now let’s cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldn’t be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. It’s interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.
Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldn’t screw up.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunter’s contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922644/posts
At that point, everyone will know he’s at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if they’re still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.
Here’s where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.
2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election
At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Fred’s campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.
While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesn’t screw up, Hunter’s supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that he’ll just be himself.
Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.
That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. That’s where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy they’re fighting for is genuine.
All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then we’ll start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether it’s our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunter’s campaign
http://www.gohunter08.com
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.
And then we’ll see Hunter smile.
We can increase Hunter’s chances by calling a talk show, and reaching thousands, hundreds of thousands or millions of people, depending on what show we call.
Let’s do it!
Looks like Earthdweller answered pretty good here.
I would add that there is this element to the republican party that is lazy when it comes to name recognition. Because if it’s anything at all about platform, TootyfruityRudy would be at 1% right now and Hunter would be on the top. With an approach like that, you end up with crappy presidents.
, I will fade your Duncan Hunter bet outright and we can skip Intrade’s percentages. Deal?
***No deal, I’m sticking with the better man and the better candidate.
Man, how I wish I were your bookie. You’d be putting my (hypothetical) kids through college.
***Then put your money where your mouth is and go for Fred or Rudy or whoever you support. You probably didn’t read the article.
Never has, never will.
***Then Abraham Lincoln never has been president?
because he has a poor campaign organization
***But the guy we’re comparing him with on this thread had tons of name recognition and look what he has done with it. Hunter’s campaign organization reflects the resources he’s been dealt. Thompson’s does not, he’s had more than a fair chance.
Is there such a person in America today?
***Yes. Just one nod from James Dobson (which wouldn’t cost Dobson a penny, BTW) and he will propel into the first tier. I am disappointed that Dobson has not done so.
Duncan Hunter will not drop out....he will pursue this even though the 'powers that be' continue to ignore & dismiss him....(just as some of you here are doing)
IF they succeed in blocking him...
..I will write in his name on the ballot.
I am sick of the game playing, I am sick of the 'top tier' pretending they speak for me....(they don't)..
I am sick of the lies and the threats.
If Duncan doesn't make it, I am through with politics, because my own Republican Party has managed to instill distrust that few, IF ANY, are honorable and honest anymore.
I will turn my attentions to protecting my family against whatever comes.
“So from your response, are you DEFENDING his votes on these items, or are you saying you just don’t know what they entail, and so can’t defend them until you know what they are for?”
It makes a difference as to the way I summarize these.”
If your going to bash Hunter, its your job to break down his votes into something specific. No I don’t know what those 5 or so votes entail. I don’t know how much “no child left behind” costs. Do you? Duncan wants to abolish the NEA anyways.
Hunter could EASILY be where Huckabee is right now, if he only had the charisma to sway people to vote for him. He doesn’t. I think you guys know he doesn’t, which is why you all constantly try to browbeat everyone else into supporting him. It doesn’t work that way.
***There’s an interesting word, Charisma. Apparently it is worth a bunch in politics because Rudy apparently has it and Huckabee seems to have enough of it to have conservatives overlook their liberal views on certain items. I cannot quantify Charisma, but we may soon know what its value is, if what you say is true. Oh, and I disagree with your contention that the media loves underdogs. The fact that the media hates true conservatives trumps that underdog thing.
You may as well ask if Genghi had ever been Khan. Remember that the formation of the Republican party was a revolution even greater than the one which brought our independence. Do we have that now?
Thompson remains a much better Intrade bet at $6 than Duncan Hunter at next to nothing.
***Thompson’s upside is 20 to 1 if he drops to $5. Hunter’s upside is 40 to 1 if he hits 5%. Hunter’s upside would pay out within the next few weeks, Thompson’s would pay out at the nomination. I would say your analysis is flawed.
but he didn’t do what he had to do to be able to operate in the system nationally.
***That gets determined at the nomination.
There is a reason why there is no trade in a Hunter drop-out scenario. That’s because its a dead certian proposition, and there are no takers on the other side of the bet.
***Then suggest the contract to Intrade and browbeat some Hunter followers to put their money where their mouth is. You get a double win if you’re right. But as it is, you are arguing from the silence of the evidence, which is a logical fallacy.
Yeah, all $2,777.80 of it.
***And if Hunter gets to 4% on Intrade, reflecting his current polling status, that would generate $111,112 (minus commission or fees or whatever). Not bad at all.
40 to 1 for Hunter to win the WH? I like those odds. ....a lot better than the Cleveland Browns to win the Super Bowl (also around 40 - 1).
He has no chance. He is a great unknown blessed with talent but devoid of presidential electability.
***Worshipping at the altar of name recognition, the bane of republican existence today. That’s how we ended up with Rudy as the front runner. Thanks but, no thanks.
Nope. They're all behind the globalist China/Nafta/cheeap labor lovers.
Sheesh Kevmo, do you work for Intrade?
***Nope.
I get it, you have posted this ad nauseum and now it deserves it’s own thread?
***Yep. But the ad nauseam part is off base. I’ve been posting it on Hunter threads, and Fredhead threads on immigration + where Fred’s been Foundering/Floundering. We deserve a better candidate than that.
Fred Foundering, yeah ok fine I think we get it. Bet on Hunter, ok, ok.
***Cool. Glad you got it.
You are overplaying this whole thing. Even if it is worth considering it is becoming harder to take seriously since you post it 50 times a thread.
***No, I was defending it 50 times a thread against a freeper who called me a liar and started stalking me. I changed one part of one sentence in the standard post and it passed muster as “not a lie”. See if you can tell the difference.
Oh, and putting your own post in as an example of “post you have been seeing”, well I hope you see a post you make...
***What?
A vanity indeed...
Yeah right. That is a real scandal there. An underfunded R&D project that is still in the R&D phase.
This is a scandal. And an example of how to waste money.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1924826/posts?page=138#138
I broke out the cost for you below. So the next time you hear that Hunter ‘spends’ too much, look at this. It should cure you.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1924826/posts?page=138#138
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.