Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
OK, so you’ve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your “investment”, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. You’re going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
https://www.intrade.com/
Which one do you choose?
Let’s start with the guy who has 3 balls. He’s got courage in spades. He’s engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as “the man who broke the sound barrier”, Chuck Yeager. While they’re campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon… and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and they’ll all look at each other & nod, saying, “this is the guy who should be my president”.
Now let’s cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldn’t be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. It’s interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.
Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldn’t screw up.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunter’s contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922644/posts
At that point, everyone will know he’s at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if they’re still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.
Here’s where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.
2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election
At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Fred’s campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.
While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesn’t screw up, Hunter’s supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that he’ll just be himself.
Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.
That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. That’s where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy they’re fighting for is genuine.
All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then we’ll start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether it’s our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunter’s campaign
http://www.gohunter08.com
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.
And then we’ll see Hunter smile.
Sorry about that, Jonesie. #284 was a response to #212, which is the one I intended to put up. It was 3am my time when I wrote that post, sorry for the error.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=212#212
ejonesie22: You have posted this more than just in response to petronski, indeed, you state even in this one reply (to my ad nauseum comment)
***I’m sorta lost, so let’s break this up into individual concepts.
Good grief! Lord almighty! You need to have a scarlet letter on you when it comes to markets. You are a disaster waiting to happen.
When people, out of the kindness of their hearts, try to explain it to you, instead of humbly accepting the knowledge and insights they offer, you stubbonly cling to nonsense.
Just like you are stubbornly clinging to the non-existent chances of your favorite candidate.
Your pork bellies example is ludicrous and shows you don’t understand commodity markets any better than you understand Intrade. What you really have is a choice between say 40,000 bushel wheat contract and a contract for 40,000 rainbow pies.
Also to that I will add that maybe we do deserve a better candidate than one who founders or whatever, but is that “better candidate” necessarily one who has not taken off at all? Who is likely to rise again, those who have seen better numbers or those who have had hardly any numbers at all?
***I think it’s the guy who had lesser numbers and has managed to pull out measurable support even with another conservative taking his preferred seat at the table. That other conservative has squandered his lead, the “L” label is sticking, and I personally think he’d rather be fishing. My guy has a fire in the belly.
In the end what I “got’ is that while Hunter is indeed a good conservative, there is more, much more, to this game than just that.
***True enough. But pretending that Hunter’s numbers are flat is disingenuous because another conservative with better name recognition stepped in front of him. That is part of the game, yes, but “there is more, much more, to this game than just that.” Thompson has squandered a lead in the polls and 30 points on Intrade. He does not deserve pole position in this race. We really should get back to that Formula1 discussion.
The reason the aRINOld vs McClintock analogy fails is that there was no Rudy in that race. If you get Rudy to drop out, I’m all for Hunter. p.s. that ain’t gonna happen.
***There was a Rudy. His name was Bustamonte. Look at all the arguments that came from the aRINOld crowd about dealing with buster and you will see the same ones here. Isn’t Thompson’s claim to fame that he can kick rudytoot to next Wednesday and not look back? He has not. He was supposed to have the name recognition and record to stand for conservatism, but he has failed.
Best bet is to tell Fox “News” that if Hunter isn’t in the debate, you’re going to start watching CNN.
***I’ll make the phone call if you post the phone number on this thread.
As for what doesn't make sense, let me rephrase. I see a lot of disdain for the system as it is now. That's good, it sucks, and it has grown from 40+ years of moderate and liberal activity. BUT it is also the system we operate under and will not change if we are not in charge to do so. That takes a win.
As for this:
Thanks for the elaboration, I appreciate it. I think Hunter CAN win over the middle with his immigration and anti-fleecetrading policies, which are hot button items across the board with middle class republicans and democrats. It doesn’t even need to be a hard sell, he just needs the exposure.
Thank you for reinforcing my point. Immigration and China, you are seeing all of America through your conservative eyes, and that only covers at best 40% of use after a few minutes and 20 after an hour. Those issues are great crowd pleasers but the general publics interest in that rarely gets past the slogans, with the exception perhaps of immigration, though it remains to be seen if that will stay very much longer in the national attention span. We will have to see about a recession and oil knocking it back.
Free trade and such also is good sound bite stuff, but it scares many after awhile because we still love our cheap goods, and an appearance of protectionism will bring out those fears and the ones who will pray upon them.
He needs to go wide and pick up many more issues. he needs more on Social Security, Tax Reform, Abortion, Economic growth, Jobs and that like.
It needs to be visible past those siting almost in front of it on his site and among his fans.
As to this:
***I don’t buy it. I have seen no evidence one way or the other that this is important to mainstream America. I never heard of Dan Quayle before he was chosen as VP. The PROCESS itself generates name recognition. That’s one reason why character is more important than name recognition.
It is important. One either generates name recogniton or has it thrust upon them. DH has done neither, as of yet. Dan Quayle does not fit in this context because he gained recognition due TO the appointment as V, also he gained that position and recognition in the party because he had stood out there. One way or the other, be it publicly or among the party members you have to make yourself known to get to the point of being known...
As far as this:
It is past the time that most politicians who end up as national players have broken out. I am told it is because he “does not bow down” or “does not play politics”. ***I am not told that. So we need to find an objective middle ground where what you say is supported and factually accepted by guys like me. I do not know how to do it.
I made mention on a thread, and I don't feel like tracking it down, that when I hate stated that Hunter needed to spend more time "politicking' in the party, that he did not play that game. Since it seems that recognition is something he needs and he also seems to be having an issue with it, it would be safe to assume that whether he indeed does not play that game, which is a shame because that is part of it, or he is not that good at it, which is even more of an issue, he needs to do something to break out.
And MY theory is that Jupiter is aligned with Mars in the seventh house of Saggitarious.
All these theories notwithstanding, let me point out ONE fact that blows your theory that Duncan Hunter's problems are all Fred's fault. As you point out, Fred's been falling, both on Intrade where there is seen less and less probablilty of his ultimate success, and in opinion polls in general. So, then why hasn't Hunter been picking up any of this support eroding from Thompson. It looks to me that virtually NONE of it is going to Hunter. That means those folks were NEVER Hunter's to start with. Look, I respect your commitment to Hunter. Probably if Fred Thompson were at 10 cents on Intrade and Hunter at 5 or 6 dollars, I'd still be in Thompson's camp. That's just because I see him as a superior candidate and a superior President. So, that's the way you see Hunter: so be it. But, please get yourself educated on how markets work before committing any of your hard-earned cash.
I see no real movement at all pre or post Fred.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Duncan-Hunter.html
Ironically his best numbers seem to be after Fred entered the race, he has hit 3-4% in a couple of polls...
Again, go to the poll composite I posted.
I don’t think Fred “steeping in front of him” has mattered one way or the other. There is nothing disingenuous about facts and the numbers don’t lie. DH was running 1 and 2% before AND after FDT got in the game. Fred has had little if any impact on Hunter. Seems there was nothing to impact.
As for whether Fred deserves to be in the race, that is a matter of opinion and judges from this conservative bastion you are currently in the minority...
Hunter won’t get to $0.20. You have to realise that the 4% you are speaking of is $4. He’s basicaaly trading (actually he’s NOT trading) at the lowest possible tick, 10 cents per contract and no takers at that price, suggesting that the actual value of a Hunter contract is something less than that. as I put it, it approaches absolute zero.
***I realize that.
You seem to have the idea that if Hunter could get to 4% or 5% in the polls, somehow the value of his contract in Intrade would rise to reflect that. It wouldn’t.
***Yes I do have that idea. I also have other ideas that are discussed on that thread over at Intrade but are not allowed here on FR, and it leads me to believe that the Fred.Dropout contract is a bargain as well. If Fred drops out, his support should go to Hunter. But that may be incorrect reasoning because he’s got some support from name recognition types who would jump over to the best name recognition candidate. So I think about half of his support would fall to Hunter, and Hunter could gather the conservative wing and start kicking hindquarters and taking names in the Kennedy Wing of the Republican Party.
Why? That’s just NOT how markets work. Because you can’t with 4%, and that would be the upper bound of possibility for him, the market will continue to assess Hunter’s chances of bweing the Republican nominee as essentially zero.
***How do you know that? Huckabee moved on up into the 2nd tier with similar polling numbers.
Hunter is trading right there with Tom Tancredo. if Barney Frank were a Republican presidential candidate, he’d be right there with Duncan.
***Yes, but Hunter is truly a bargain. If you think that the odds of him getting to $4 are less than 40 to 1, show us how.
Look, if you were to buy one of more of the outstanding Hunter contracts you’d make the holders very happy because I can assure you that they know they are holding a worthless asset, due to expire at a zero value ssome months from now. It would warm their hearts to know that somewhere out there you can still find someone willing to pay something for nothing.
***Then let’s warm their hearts. There are only ~2208 contracts currently offered for sale, all at 0.5 or below, and the price would jump instantly to 0.5.
0.1 639
0.2 742
0.3 375
0.4 300
0.5 152
Then you’d see other folks hoping to dump their contracts, the median price would go up and he won’t be the bargain he is at 0.1 for long. I posted another thread where I thought I saw Hunter going to 5% on Intrade because someone had posted BID prices at 2% and 3% with no ASK prices, no bites. It just does not add up, to see that kind of lopsided inactivity, but it really is a bargain, today.
I do see now where the anti-Fred feelings of DH supporters come from. You see him as the one who robbed DH of what should have been his mantle. Did you ever consider that Fred "waited so long" hoping that DH would pick it up?
It was Calcowgirl’s post on this thread
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1926032/posts?page=18#18
Huckabee seems to be using his artificial life support to full “useful idiot” effect.
Good data. This would sort of negate a Hunter supporter’s reason to see Fred as someone who stole their candidate’s mantle, eh?
Hunter is the only man I have given money to but I like Fred too. That said, when people are so narrow minded as to how to get rid of abortion it makes me wonder, is their goal to actually end abortion no matter who gets credit? How would Hunter end abortion in America? Freds approach makes sense and its realistic.
***Well, Mogambo, we’re definitely on the same page with the pro-life thing.
My criticisms of Duncan Hunter are not to be taken as criticisms of him personally. Actually, I dont’ think I can hold a candle to him. He is a man of honor, integrity, and deep patriotism.
***I see this so often, and it gets accompanied with a “but” he has no name recognition. It’s time for us to examine the possibility of how much name recognition Hunter would have had if Thompson had not entered the race. Similar to what would have happened to McClintock if aRINOld had not entered the race, but this time we can do something about it before it is too late.
His trust in the intrinsic goodness of American, and desire to use military power to reproduce that around the world, frankly scares the hell out of me.
***You kind of lose me here. He’s going to “use military power to reproduce” “the intrinsic goodness of American” ? American what? Values?
I see him making many of the same mistakes that the religious right have made and continue to make in that they want the power to make our country and world a better place.
***Ahh, grasshopper, you are mistaken. The religious right entered politics very begrudgingly, considering it a distasteful earthly pursuit (and they’re right about that) and it was not a pursuit of power that drives them but a pursuit of social justice. People don’t protest abortion clinics because they want the power over a woman’s life to tell her what to do, they do it because they have a tremendous desire to save that baby. If there was some way to save that baby without getting into politics & telling that woman what to do, as an example, the religious right would be all over it. Or at least SHOULD be all over it. That’s why I give money to things like Crisis Pregnancy Centers that help mothers get free ultrasounds of their babies. They save lives.
The problem with that is twofold: 1) men are corruptible, even the good guys like, say, Duke Cunningham 2) once the power gets there, it doesnt just magically go away when the other guys show up. THanks for listening to my rant.
***I agree with your assessment of power and how it corrupts. That’s one reason why character is so important in our president, a lesson I sure wish we all would have learned from the first Clintoon.
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