I expect pissant to clear it up, once he's out of the penalty box.
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
OK, so you’ve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your “investment”, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. You’re going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
https://www.intrade.com/
Which one do you choose?
Let’s start with the guy who has 3 balls. He’s got courage in spades. He’s engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as “the man who broke the sound barrier”, Chuck Yeager. While they’re campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon… and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and they’ll all look at each other & nod, saying, “this is the guy who should be my president”.
Now let’s cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldn’t be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. It’s interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.
Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldn’t screw up.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunter’s contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922644/posts
At that point, everyone will know he’s at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if they’re still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.
Here’s where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.
2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election
At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Fred’s campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.
While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesn’t screw up, Hunter’s supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that he’ll just be himself.
Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.
That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. That’s where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy they’re fighting for is genuine.
All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then we’ll start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether it’s our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunter’s campaign
http://www.gohunter08.com
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.
And then we’ll see Hunter smile.
Just a point or two;-)
One has to have a mantle to steal it seems...
You still believe in Duncan's chances. I respect that (question it, but...). So you can understand why others believe that your assessment of Fred is wrong. His momentum is building and it is not a stretch to picture him "kicking rudytoot to next Wednesday" in the future. Come to think of it, an endorsement from Duncan Hunter might be the very thing that gets that started.
See post #203—There are two debates.
I think the one I referred to earlier is a different debate than the one where the GOP limited participation of candidates.
It does seem strange to have two Iowa debates in the same week, but I guess that is normal as they approach the caucus?
Good grief! Lord almighty! You need to have a scarlet letter on you when it comes to markets. You are a disaster waiting to happen.
***By all means, bring us all up to speed on this, oh Jedi Master. I am an acknowledged newcomer to Intrade.
When people, out of the kindness of their hearts,
***Nonsense. You just want the support to go away from Hunter. So how do we separate that? We probably can’t. That’s why the Intrade forums are better for those kinds of discussions. You see all the time people saying, “full disclosure, I’m long on Fred” or somesuch thing. Their bias is removed and I’m inclined to listen to what they have to say, there are some who think Hunter is a bargain. They all bemoan the fact that his contract has had no liquidity.
Here’s the intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
Here’s the intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
try to explain it to you, instead of humbly accepting the knowledge and insights they offer, you stubbonly cling to nonsense.
***That’s because it really isn’t out of the kindness of your heart. Feel free to explain it over there on the Intrade forum if you think I’m not listening. The Thompson forum has more hits over there at Intrade than any other forum. You have an agenda and I have an agenda (Go Hunter, Hoo Rah) so if you want me to listen to the facts that you offer out of the “kindness of your heart” you’ll need to find a way past the agenda thing. I simply do not trust that what you are saying is the reality on the ground because of the bias of your agenda, and I’m willing to let Freepers go and see & judge for themselves.
Hunter forum
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
Thompson forum
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
Just like you are stubbornly clinging to the non-existent chances of your favorite candidate.
***According to Intrade, the chances for my candidate are at 0.1 and for yours at 6.0. Your candidate has gone down from 35% down to 6%, now that’s freeping ugly. My candidate has stayed at the asterisk level and has a real chance of getting past that, just like Huckabee did.
Your pork bellies example is ludicrous and shows you don’t understand commodity markets any better than you understand Intrade.
***Well, I would certainly own up to that, being a newbie to intrade and all. Feel free to enlighten us. Feel free to enlighten the Intraders, who seem to disagree with what you have to say. I think I will take their word over yours until I see some erudition from your posts.
What you really have is a choice between say 40,000 bushel wheat contract and a contract for 40,000 rainbow pies.
***Except that, grasshopper, there is no underlying value in this futures market. Commodities prices have an underlying value. It is a relatively unique market pricing scheme. Your analogy fails. You might want to try your reasoning approach over there, see if that flies. I doubt it.
By the way, that was a nice misdirection. You did not answer the hypothetical. It’s clear as day that Option A is the better option.
If you had $1k and could choose 2 futures in PigBellies, both offering a 40-to-1 payout and OptionA pays out in a few weeks and OptionB pays out in a year. OptionA would pay out in a few weeks when Intrade reflects the current polling numbers or somesuch data about pigbellies, and OptionB would pay only if Pigbellies are one of the most expensive commodities in the market one year from now (or choose a similar suitable outcome). Option B has gone down by 30 points due to fundamentals and Option A has stayed static and low due to fundamentals. Which is a better option? Option A is, and Duncan Hunter is the better option.
polls not In Trade,
***Poisoning the well. This is a thread that heavily focuses on Intrade results but you won’t accept Intrade results. If you want such a thread where “polls not InTrade” is discussed, feel free to invite me to your thread. I have mostly ignored polls that were more than a year out because they measure name recognition. Name recognition is not a character trait.
I expect pissant to clear it up, once he's out of the penalty box.
Thompson has squandered nothing as of yet and there is no evidence at all that Hunter would be anywhere other than where is is now if Fred had not entered.
***Handily going past your “polls not Intrade” fallacy, I point out that Hunter was once trading at ~2.5% at one time, there was activity from January until about July, when FredRunning rumors were getting hot. Fred announced in September. Fred took his support. We all saw it here on FR.
Indeed as far back as I can tell his numbers have been consistent. He seemed to not move up or down upon Fred mention or later entry in the big show.
***Here, of course, you’re talking national polling numbers, but he is at 4% in 2 recent polls. Pissant can provide the links, but I have my hands full with this thread so I will not go and fetch for you.
If you have numbers, polls not In Trade, that show otherwise please let me know. Any fluctuation needs to be outside the MOE of course.
***I don’t know if his poll numbers are yet outside the MOE. But since I have not dealt much in poll numbers in the past and have grown to accept some of the wisdom offered in futures markets, I think I found my unbiased vehicle for data until a better one shows up.
I will address other aspects of your post later, gotta go now.
Thank you for reinforcing my point. Immigration and China, you are seeing all of America through your conservative eyes, and that only covers at best 40% of use after a few minutes and 20 after an hour. Those issues are great crowd pleasers but the general publics interest in that rarely gets past the slogans, with the exception perhaps of immigration, though it remains to be seen if that will stay very much longer in the national attention span. We will have to see about a recession and oil knocking it back.
Free trade and such also is good sound bite stuff, but it scares many after awhile because we still love our cheap goods, and an appearance of protectionism will bring out those fears and the ones who will pray upon them.
***I am not viewing it through that prism all the time, merely most of the time; though I acknowledge that I have a conservative viewpoint and most of America does, too. Here’s a post from the Intrade thread that explains better than I’ve seen elsewhere why immigration isn’t playing so well in middle America. It is natural for a freeper to discuss candidates and issues from the perspective of what is important to him. That’s just human nature.
Delphi
Intrade
Joined: 11/09/2007 06:28:38
Messages: 102
Offline
Actually GAW, I respectfully disagree in insisting that there *was* a mystery here. (Note that I was never arguing that he had the means to get his positions to the public through traditional late-20th century means but rather was wondering why the internet hadn’t to some extent circumvented that deficit.) I say *was* because I have answered my own question today. At the risk of oversimplifying the issue, here is my answer:
Voters don’t care nearly as much about immigration right now as they do about other issues. Or for that matter - interestingly for our Giuliani debates - “moral/family values”. At least, that’s what they told the ABC/WaPo poll this past week. It’s all about the economy (stupid), health care and Iraq. Immigration might be something they like to grouse about, but they won’t vote about it, not this time around. Granted this is “all voters”, and the sampling is slightly skewed toward Democratic leaners, probably to better capture the current national mood. But overall people care about as much about immigration as they do the “war on uncontrollable fear” — which is to say, “not very much”. (Sadly, I note that global warming barely registers on this list.)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_110407.html
“3. Thinking ahead to the November 2008 presidential election, what is the single most important issue in your choice for president? “
[posting here an edited version of NET for first plus second most important issues — Delphi]
Iraq/War in Iraq 45
Terrorism/National
security 9
Economy/Jobs 29
Health care 27
Immigration/Illegal
immigration 8
Morals/Family
values 3
Global warming 1
He needs to go wide and pick up many more issues. he needs more on Social Security, Tax Reform, Abortion, Economic growth, Jobs and that like.
***I agree, he has and will go wide when he needs to.
It needs to be visible past those siting almost in front of it on his site and among his fans.
***I notice that the argument keeps coming round to visibility and name recognition. Those are not character attributes. A person without name recognition can acquire it, but a person with a sickening moral character like Bubba Clinton cannot shake it. Character is more important than name recognition in a president.
[Name Recognition] is important. One either generates name recogniton or has it thrust upon them. DH has done neither, as of yet.
***And it is time for Thompson to get out of the race so that Hunter can generate it as the best conservative choice in the race. Thompson had his day in the sun, he squandered it, let him go back to Hollywood where he seems to prefer to be. He’s in Hunter’s way.
Dan Quayle does not fit in this context because he gained recognition due TO the appointment as V, also he gained that position and recognition in the party because he had stood out there.
***That bolsters my point that name recognition is something that can be acquired whereas character is a muscle that takes years & years to build up.
One way or the other, be it publicly or among the party members you have to make yourself known to get to the point of being known...
***Again we go back to the Name Recognition/Visibility. With Thompson out of the way, he has plenty of visibility.
I’ll stick with traditon, not gambling...
I see no evidence of a wholesale “stealing” of DH’s support. Yes there were some on FR, but then ask yourself why did they jump when others didn’t...
As far as at 4% I found one of the polls, the CNN one, the other I’ll even give you...
4% in two polls...
Ok now what?
Um, yeah, that explain our majorities in the US congress and in states across the nation...
On the immigration bit, didn't you just tell me this:
Thanks for the elaboration, I appreciate it. I think Hunter CAN win over the middle with hisimmigration and anti-fleecetrading policies, which are hot button items across the board with middle class republicans and democrats. It doesn’t even need to be a hard sell, he just needs the exposure.
Now you tell me this:
***I am not viewing it through that prism all the time, merely most of the time; though I acknowledge that I have a conservative viewpoint and most of America does, too. Here’s a post from the Intrade thread that explains better than I’ve seen elsewhere why immigration isn’t playing so well in middle America. It is natural for a freeper to discuss candidates and issues from the perspective of what is important to him. That’s just human nature.
I'll save the rest for space sake...
But which is it, is middle America "hot" on immigration or is it not playing well vs. other issues that hunter stresses less often, such as the War and the Economy?Seems a bit contradictory.
Of course according to you I am sure there is someway it's not...
I don’t know. I’ve never been involved in politics at this level. I’m learning what is normal as I go. Therefore, I may never learn :P
I made mention on a thread, and I don’t feel like tracking it down, that when I hate stated that Hunter needed to spend more time “politicking’ in the party, that he did not play that game. Since it seems that recognition is something he needs and he also seems to be having an issue with it, it would be safe to assume that whether he indeed does not play that game, which is a shame because that is part of it, or he is not that good at it, which is even more of an issue, he needs to do something to break out.
***Hunter would have had plenty of name recognition by now if Thompson had not entered the race. Thompson’s drop in the polls and 30 point drop at Intrade is evidence that he isn’t a good campaigner, and if he were to step aside, the rock-ribbed conservative would have clear sailing to knock out tootyfruityrudy and then Hildebeast. Hunter’s issue of lack of name recognition is intimately tied to the fact that Thompson entered the race. Think about what would have happened on FR alone if Thompson had not entered and said, “no thanks, I have cancer.” We and many other conservatives would have rallied around him and he’d be in the top tier. We could say with a straight face, “Rudy who?”
Thanks. I left a message. It’s option #7 deep inside their voicemail system...
And MY theory is that Jupiter is aligned with Mars in the seventh house of Saggitarious.
***This theory is so much better than yours:
Surfer dude stuns physicists with theory of everything
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925732/posts
All these theories notwithstanding, let me point out ONE fact that blows your theory that Duncan Hunter’s problems are all Fred’s fault. As you point out, Fred’s been falling, both on Intrade where there is seen less and less probablilty of his ultimate success, and in opinion polls in general.
***Glad to see you accept that.
So, then why hasn’t Hunter been picking up any of this support eroding from Thompson.
***Because Thompson is still there.
It looks to me that virtually NONE of it is going to Hunter. That means those folks were NEVER Hunter’s to start with.
***He’s losing the name recognition folks first, then the evangelical crowd going to Huckabee, then it will soon be the conservatives. Those are the ones I want, they’re the ones still in his camp.
Look, I respect your commitment to Hunter. Probably if Fred Thompson were at 10 cents on Intrade and Hunter at 5 or 6 dollars, I’d still be in Thompson’s camp. That’s just because I see him as a superior candidate and a superior President. So, that’s the way you see Hunter: so be it.
***That is the way I see it. Hunter is a better man and a better candidate, and you even bolster that point “ Fred’s been falling, both on Intrade where there is seen less and less probablilty of his ultimate success, and in opinion polls in general. “ And that’s just Fred as a candidate. Hunter is much better on the issues. The soldiers would crawl through broken glass for a guy like Hunter.
But, please get yourself educated on how markets work before committing any of your hard-earned cash.
***I’m in the process. You might want to expend your education efforts on the Intrade forum where your bias won’t be tolerated in your analysis. Please do that.
he has hit 3-4% in a couple of polls...
***And so I think he should be at 3-4% at Intrade or thereabouts, hence this thread.
Hunter had name recognition issues BEFORE Fred’s entry, as is obvious from numerous polls. Thompson’s entry had a nominal impact on Hunter. Definitely not enough to put him in the top tier.
Speculation and the repetition of it will not make it so...
One last thought. Trying to blame Fred for Hunters woes, well it actually seems your are under cutting Hunter and his standing as a politician. If he was a good as you present him as being, Fred should have had no impact on him one way or the other.
Is he?
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