Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
OK, so you’ve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your “investment”, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. You’re going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
https://www.intrade.com/
Which one do you choose?
Let’s start with the guy who has 3 balls. He’s got courage in spades. He’s engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as “the man who broke the sound barrier”, Chuck Yeager. While they’re campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon… and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and they’ll all look at each other & nod, saying, “this is the guy who should be my president”.
Now let’s cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldn’t be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. It’s interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.
Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldn’t screw up.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunter’s contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922644/posts
At that point, everyone will know he’s at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if they’re still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.
Here’s where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.
2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election
At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Fred’s campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.
While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesn’t screw up, Hunter’s supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that he’ll just be himself.
Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.
That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. That’s where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy they’re fighting for is genuine.
All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then we’ll start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether it’s our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunter’s campaign
http://www.gohunter08.com
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.
And then we’ll see Hunter smile.
Unfortunately America is going to vote for the one who has the charisma they desire. I find that in Romney.
***At least you can express what is important to you in a candidate, though it does not seem all that quantifiable. Romney’s support is drooping in Iowa, where he seems to have outspent Huckster by 10 to 1 and yet Huckster is coming from nowhere to take him on. If Huckster the “prolife liberal” can do it, Hunter can do it.
So, to review, your plan is to take conservative support from the guy who is heading for the basement after a couple of months, and give it to a guy who has been in the basement since the day before Halloween in 2006.
***Then you agree that your guy is heading for the basement, even though he’s been given all these resources. Look at how Huckster’s doing in Iowa, smoking Romney who outspent him by a wide margin. And Huckster is beating your basement guy, so as long as both are supposedly in the basement we might as well coalesce behind the stronger conservative.
Romney leads in 10 of 15 current polls in Iowa. I don’t think he “drooping” quite that much.
Good grief.....Hunter is a great Congressman who has NO Management Experience....hence NO WAY JOSE!
Romney leads in 10 of 15 current polls in Iowa. I don’t think he “drooping” quite that much.
***OK, Mr. Poll Worshipper, take those 10 polls and measure how far Romney was ahead of Huckster a month ago, two weeks ago, and today. That’s the definition of droop.
Polls are interesting, but it’s the DELTA in the polls that tells the real stories. And futures markets have emerged as better indicators than polls anyways, which is why you are even on this thread.
And the DELTA in Intrade over the last few days shows Huckster blowing Romney out of the water. If Huckster can do it, Hunter can do it.
Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win M 70.0 75.9 70.0 762 +4.4
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win M 22.3 32.8 23.3 733 -6.9
He’s the best conservative in the race.
He was the chairman of the defense appropriations committee, which is about half a $trillion with a T big. That’s more management experience than most others.
Put your support behind the guy who would make the best president.
Since the left is pushing Huckabee, we will have to wait and see who actually votes. Huck will have a real problem in more conservative states.
Should Mitt get any bounce from his speech, that will take another week.
We are only in the first inning.
I realize all that....BUT HE HAS NO EXPERIENCE IN RUNNING ANYTHING...other than a COMMITTEE!! Do you NOT see the folly in your support!! It’s like you would nominate the JANITOR because he’s conservative and keeps the roof from leaking!! Good Grief, man....MANAGEMENT EXPERIENCE....or do you think that’s not needed?????
It’s the evangelicals who are lining up behind Huckster. If his campaign implodes, support would land on Hunter.
Jill Stanek: Behind the scenes at FRC Briefing (Family Research Council)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1915901/posts
crossref: Dobson and 50 evangelical leaders
Um, I thought Abe Lincoln was a good president.
By your measure, you’d be knocking out one of the greatest presidents. Do you not see your own folly?
ping
I am a proud Romney supporter....who do you support?
Thanks for the softball. I support the best conservative in the race, Duncan Hunter.
If the liberal evangelical Huckabee can take the lead from out of nowhere, so can Hunter the true conservative evangelical.
Posted as a snapshot after the Univision debate.
Fred really doesn’t have much room to maneuver, either. By hedging on Federalism for abortion and the 14th amendment on immigration, he alienates conservatives. He’s basically asking conservatives to care about poll results and liberal poll worshippers to care about conservatism.
Thompson is currently trading at 1.5 on Intrade to win the Iowa caucuses, just 0.4 ahead of the field (Hunter).
Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win M 70.0 75.7 70.0 762 +4.4
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win M 22.3 32.6 23.3 733 -6.9
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win M 0.4 2.4 1.5 375 -0.3
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win M 0.1 1.6 0.5 130 0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win M 0.5 4.0 1.5 215 0
REP.IOWA.GINGRICH
Newt Gingrich to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
REP.IOWA.HAGEL
Chuck Hagel to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win M 1.1 4.4 1.1 241 0
All In (Fred Thompson moves to Iowa)
Weekly Standard ^ | 12/7/07 | Stephen Hayes
Posted on 12/08/2007 4:06:27 PM PST by cotton1706
Des Moines, Iowa FORMER TENNESSEE SENATOR Fred Thompson has decided to take his campaign and virtually all of its resources to Iowa in an all-or-nothing attempt to register a strong showing in the caucuses here on January 3.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1936775/posts?page=83#83
1. Call me a poll worshipper at all, when my clear and oft-stated aim is to keep a proven Marxist moron out of the Oval Office.
2. Call me a poll worshipper, when you're basically doing the same thing, only using prediction markets instead of polls.
Nice try.
I alos love how every time somebody tries to convince people backing a clear also ran (Hunter, Paul, etc.) that they should help get behind a winning candidate with conservative values (such as Thompson) they all yell, "Why are you wasting time on a guy that can't win?" Apparently y'all never ask yourselcves that question...
I also love how every time somebody tries to convince people backing a clear also ran (Hunter, Paul, etc.) that they should help get behind a winning candidate with conservative values (such as Thompson) they all yell, "Why are you wasting time on a guy that can't win?" Apparently y'all never ask yourselves that question...
1. Call me a poll worshipper at all, ***If you read the post carefully, you’ll see that I stopped short of calling you in particular a poll worshipper, mainly because I have so much respect for your previous postings on FR. I say that FR has been overtaken by poll worshippers. If you’re one of them, then you deserve the monicker.
If your “clear and oft-stated aim is to keep a proven Marxist moron out of the Oval Office” then you should be happy, because some recent poll showed that the 5 main candidates in the GOP all can beat the hildebeast. That’s been my contention all along, that hillary is eminently beatable, especially if we nominate a true conservative and the MSM goes into liberal slathering mode. Anyone can beat her. Anyone.
only using prediction markets instead of polls.
***It’s very simple. Prediction markets have proven to be more accurate than polls. The main argument against backing the best conservative in the race has been poll results. My approach is an effective counterargument.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
I notice you didn’t answer the questions. You’re fond of pointing out excuses, what are the excuses for the fact that someone who is basically diametrically opposed to our platform is the frontrunner? Where’s all the aRINOld supporters who pushed around the McClintock followers here on FR? Why do you expend so much effort on some candidate who’s supposedly going nowhere?
“Why are you wasting time on a guy that can’t win?” Apparently y’all never ask yourselcves that question...
***That’s not the question I ask. The question I ask and you need to answer is, “what is the best evidence that someone is a lousy campaigner?” If it’s poll results, then shouldn’t the GOP drop the campaigner when the poll results fall dramatically? When we throw tons of resources onto a candidate who has good name recognition and a defensible conservative record but end up with drooping poll results and a 30 point drop at Intrade, it is evidence that he is a lousy campaigner. When Huckabee pulls into the lead in Iowa beating Romney who has outspent him 10 to 1 or so, it’s a sign that Huckabee is a good campaigner. Our resources need to go to the good, pro-life campaigners. The GOP has never given much in terms of resources to Hunter. It has given such resources to a squanderer.
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