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Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 227 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 311 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 248.30 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

Previous projections:

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

Yikes.

I guess this means Obama has already won?

This is unadulterated junk.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

Obama is a tulip.

Your just scaring people with this. This is a really old map with old numbers.

If true, I see a “Storm coming in” as Sarah Connor would say. I believe if Obama wins, we are in for deep trouble.

If the weighted probabilities of Obummer winning in the states are added up, and then divided by the square root of 333, and multiplied by 100 then subtracted from 53 (the normal IQ of most dem’s, then Obummer should get 1 Electoral Vote.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

I still have a premonition of sorts that this will end up a 269-269 tie in the EC. That should scare the hell out of everyone...

I thought recent polls showed Ohio and Pennsylvania polling toward McCain?

After Hillary, McCain is the most popular national candidate in Massachusetts. He is stronger still in New Hampshire.

We shall see what happens.

I naturally look at Nevada first. 5 electoral votes for Obama? McCain is ahead at least 5% here. No need to give further consideration to the list.

yitbos

Not bad, Colorado got VERY close to 50% earlier in the week. I'm guessing that state gets the biggest Obama bump because of the convention being there.

Hopefully a couple of weeks after the GOP convention we can see McCain move into the lead for the first time.

Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes or higher.

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
7-Jan	241.05	20.18%
14-Jan	235.29	14.70%
21-Jan	234.76	14.66%
28-Jan	236.58	15.44%
4-Feb	236.26	15.41%
11-Feb	237.25	16.43%
18-Feb	230.61	12.69%
25-Feb	233.56	15.44%
3-Mar	234.54	16.27%
10-Mar	240.26	22.49%
17-Mar	244.58	24.60%
24-Mar	249.73	28.50%
31-Mar	252.18	30.87%
7-Apr	248.97	27.60%
14-Apr	249.24	27.62%
21-Apr	247.86	25.60%
28-Apr	251.65	29.06%
5-May	250.84	28.07%
12-May	252.31	29.25%
19-May	248.73	25.99%
26-May	250.15	27.10%
2-Jun	248.98	26.46%
9-Jun	247.87	26.81%
16-Jun	248.41	26.06%
23-Jun	233.92	15.76%
30-Jun	234.84	16.21%
14-Jul	237.43	19.14%
21-Jul	231.61	14.15%
28-Jul	233.21	15.18%
4-Aug	234.45	16.45%
11-Aug	242.62	21.56%
18-Aug	246.64	25.20%
25-Aug	248.30	25.59%

For comparison, the results of 20,000 simulations of another model based on Rasmussen state-by-state polls as of 25-Aug are: GOP Electoral Votes = 253.91, Probability of 270 = 21.71%. The sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that a 1.25% reduction in Obama polling and a 1.25% increase in McCain polling results in 281.77 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 74.33% chance of winning.

do you know what the most recent polls are saying regarding OH and PA?

Here is the history of Rasmussen state polls, at the end of each month.

Week	Ohio McCain	Ohio Obama
29-Feb	42%	41%
31-Mar	46%	40%
30-Apr	47%	40%
31-May	45%	44%
30-Jun	44%	43%
31-Jul	46%	40%
25-Aug	45%	41%

Week	Pennsylvania McCain	Pennsylvania Obama
29-Feb	39%	49%
31-Mar	44%	43%
30-Apr	44%	43%
31-May	43%	45%
30-Jun	42%	46%
31-Jul	42%	47%
25-Aug	40%	45%

-PJ