Posted on 09/08/2008 4:45:34 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 260 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 278 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 254.33 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
I’ll take that bet. I think its going to be a blow-out for McCain. Obama is this year’s McGovern.
Wrong on Nevada and Colorado, which of course is enough to tip it to McCain.
I think Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania could very well go McCain’s way as well.
InTrade seems to be leaning ever so much to Obama. One wonders if someone at the campaign isn’t making some bets just so it feeds back in to the blog/media clusterf***...
I believe this is an accurate reflection of the overall perception of relative strengths of the two candidates around the country.
If the strengths shift, the perceptions will change.
Only McCain can shift these numbers. Obama can’t really do much besides pretend to further fire up his already fired up base.
McCain has to strengthen his argument that we need to drill for more oil to save our civilization. To the degree that he strengthens that argument, his overall numbers will boost.
What a difference a week makes. It’s shaping up for a great win. I like to see things moving our way....
What a difference a week makes. It’s shaping up for a great win. I like to see things moving our way....
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Obama bid price has dropped from $60 to $51 in the last seven days.
Just wait until some new state polls come out post-RNC. I have a feeling this will move significantly.
California can split their electoral vote now right?
They have WA as next to no chance of McCain winning yet the recent polls show McCain closing to within a few % points - without Bradley.
I also suspect that there is a bit of $$$ being dumped into Intrade to maintain the illusion, when you have a billionaire like Soros funding Obama, what’s a few thousand to nudge the numbers?
I agree. The states given Zero will not all go there. But all those given the Hero will go to him.
Intrade is just a consolidation of the latest poll numbers. Nothing more. People bet according to what they know. All they know is what we know—the latest poll numbers.
Remember In Trade is international, it comes out of England. Most of the Euroweenies are Obama fans. Americans can make a pretty penny wagering against the Euroweenies.
Agree with you.
New Hampshire, Michigan, Colorado and Nevada are much closer than shown here.
you can say that again....
I’ve seen some shift in the numbers. I figure it will be the slowest poll to change since people have money invested in it. It will definitely be interesting to see what happens closer to the end of the race. I do agree with you on NV, CO and NM though, as of right now.
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