According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 174 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 364 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 204.42 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/6/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/29/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/22/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
There is a lot of great, great money bets to be had here.
3-1 odds that McCain wins Ohio! WOW! That’s mortgage the house and bet it all type of odds.
Thanks for the ping. Polls today show McCain within 4 points of Obama nationally. That suggests some good buy opportunities on some key states and the individual pres contract, which is at 27 for McCain now, nice & cheap.
So, McCain needs to flip CO, FL, IA, MO, NV, NH, NC, OH. It’s doable, but cutting it close. My dream scenario is seeing networks call the election for Obama based on early returns in the ET zone...and then CA shockingly goes in McCain’s column late in the evening. Can you imagine the talking heads like Olbermann if that were to happen? They would be suicidal.
Given the roller coaster market we have now, these 'traders' are liable to bet on the sun rising in the south.
RCP has Florida and Virginia leaning Obama at this time. This has been such a bizarre election though, full of surprises.
What was it at this point back in ‘00?