Posted on 10/20/2008 4:17:59 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 174 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 364 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 199.27 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/13/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/6/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/29/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/22/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
About the last thing I trust right now is the stock market.
More market manipulation.
Markets.
Polls.
BS.
See you on the 4th of November.
Who are the members of the Electoral College? How were they selected?
Missouri? Colorado? North Carolina? BS.
Agreed. MO ain’t going blue.
I hope the Obama supporters are wrong. I bet quite a bit on McCain at an average of 25 and sent my anticipated winnings to the RNC and some 527’s.
I believe the WWE more than any of these “polls”. There is only one poll that counts and its on November 4th.
Also check out Federalist Paper No. 39 (I think it’s 39, but just to be safe, read the Federalist and Anti-Federalist Papers.)
Is there an actual list of Electors’ names, or are they anonymous like jurors?
I believe that the Electors have already been chosen by their respective parties.
I do not know if there is a public list or not.
“Missouri? Colorado? North Carolina? BS.”
I agree Missouri isn’t likely to go blue. But have you seen the latest polls on Colorado and North Carolina?
North Carolina may even squeek out red assuming a great last ditch effort by the McCain campaign there. However, Colorado is going blue whether we like it or not.
Colorado:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html
North Carolina:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html
The polls in NC and CO are BS. Find me one without a skewed sample towards the Dems.
Wow, it appears McCain is dead. Obama has 364 EV’s already and all the late deciders most likely will break for Obama. I have a gut feeling McCain will win no more than 10 states. It will be a very short election night for sure.I heard there was new poll in TN where Obama is beating him there now. Obama has the organization, the money and a more die hard loyal following. How can McCain even compete.
We are a silent majority and the country is still center-right.
Fine, Obama squeaks out a win by capturing Virginia and Colorado, maybe.
But no way he's going to win Ohio, Missouri and Florida.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.