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Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 185 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 353 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 193.65 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

Previous projections:

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

Ohhhh geeezzzz.....

I guess I will just stay home tomorrow then..../sarc

My only regret is that I have but ONE vote to give for my country!!!

Boy, are those intraders gonna be shocked on Election Night!

Well, I guess we might as well not show up with these numbers.

Let's prove the traders wrong!

Vote McCain/Palin!!!!!!!

An easily manipulated bit of rubbish...

Going to be a lot of “traders” who are going to lose a bundle.

if I wanted to see the obama poll cheerleaders I just need to look at Yahoo’s numbers.

This is, at best, an echo of the polling results.

How much would need to be bet to skew the results? Could Soros toss in a couple of million and flip Intrade to demoralize Republicans? That's a lot cheaper than putting Obama on every channel. If by betting $20 on your favorite football team you made it much more likely to win would you place that bet?

Also, the more polls which can be skewed to look like an Obama win will give room for the moonbats to claim another "stolen" election if McCain does win, which would weaken a McCain administration for the next four or eight years. Intrade has been portrayed as the "perfect" poll because people are actually putting money at risk, but if a few are trying to skew it for political benefit then it isn't so perfect anymore.

We’re doomed.

I don’t understand why there is so much Obama Kool-Aid drinking going on when there is no evidence to justify it. Not a shred, except the media trying to will it to happen.