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2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/27/2008
InTrade ^ | Monday, October 27, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 10/27/2008 6:40:13 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008election; 2008polls; election; electionpresident; elections; electoral; electoralvotes; intrade; mccain; mccainpalin; obama; obamabiden; presidential; projected; votes
Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 174 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 364 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 192.70 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 10/27/2008 6:40:14 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/20/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/13/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/6/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/29/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/22/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

2 posted on 10/27/2008 6:40:32 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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3 posted on 10/27/2008 6:40:55 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Aeronaut; amigatec; angkor; annyokie; beckysueb; billva; BlessedByLiberty; bluefish; ...


If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.


4 posted on 10/27/2008 6:41:37 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

There are some just awesome bets out there.

3-1 odds for a McCain/Palin win in Florida! Oh man!

Better than 6-1 odds in PA.


5 posted on 10/27/2008 6:42:48 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: AmericaUnited

8-1 odds on a McCain win in NH! WOW!


6 posted on 10/27/2008 6:43:44 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: Momaw Nadon

Wow! I wish I had some serious money to put into that market. Obama is seriously over valued.


7 posted on 10/27/2008 6:46:02 AM PDT by Ingtar (Go Palin! And the white-haired guy too, I suppose. '08)
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To: Momaw Nadon

I am sad, very sad, that this election may put us on a terrible downward trend...


8 posted on 10/27/2008 6:47:20 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Momaw Nadon

T heard on CNN there’s a Irish gambling company already paying out on an Obama win as if it’s a locked in done deal. Crazy.


9 posted on 10/27/2008 6:51:44 AM PDT by FreedomFerret
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To: Momaw Nadon

In trade had Bush at around 40% the weeks before the 2004 election. I bought a bunch and made a killing.

As a futures market, they pretty much suck. The amount of volume is fairly small and they generally show movement after the fact, not before.

Still, I’m buying up stock in Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio.

The odds on them are ridiculous. With accurate reweighing, McCain is solid in the first 2 and about over even to make it in Ohio.

The Intraders have drunken the kool-aid of biased polling.


10 posted on 10/27/2008 6:51:44 AM PDT by DiogenesLaertius
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To: DiogenesLaertius

Agreed...

If you want to really take advantage of the “system” and take home some change as well.... Bet heavy on McCain....


11 posted on 10/27/2008 6:55:05 AM PDT by SterlingSilver (If it walks like a duck, looks like a duck and quacks like a duck... its a duck!)
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To: SterlingSilver
If the polls are as fudged up as I believe, this is more correct:


12 posted on 10/27/2008 6:57:08 AM PDT by Ingtar (Go Palin! And the white-haired guy too, I suppose. '08)
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To: Ingtar

I believe you’re right—the polls are fudged; I’m not sure by how much. But consider this: Intrade represents real money that people are betting. If they relied on polls that can be proven to have been doctored, and they lose, do they have a case of any kind against the pollsters?


13 posted on 10/27/2008 7:03:39 AM PDT by Buck W. (If you push something hard enough, it will fall over.)
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To: Ingtar

Your map is more realistic but I would put Mi as a toss-up.

Mi is far closer than the polls are showing.


14 posted on 10/27/2008 7:04:50 AM PDT by Beagle8U (FreeRepublic -- One stop shopping ....... Its the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: Ingtar

I like your map better!

Truthfully, I think the actual results will be very similar to the map you posted, Igntar.


15 posted on 10/27/2008 7:07:58 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

What a crock of sh**. That’s my opinion, no discussions on fantasy projections are necessary or desired.


16 posted on 10/27/2008 7:14:22 AM PDT by calex59
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To: Buck W.
I believe you’re right—the polls are fudged; I’m not sure by how much. But consider this: Intrade represents real money that people are betting. If they relied on polls that can be proven to have been doctored, and they lose, do they have a case of any kind against the pollsters?

Let's think about intrade. They really blew it with Sarah Palin being picked as VP candidate. They are not infallible, in fact they screw up quite frequently.

17 posted on 10/27/2008 7:16:32 AM PDT by calex59
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To: Momaw Nadon

Well, this is showing that Obama wins Fla, VA, PA, CO, Nevada, Ohio, all the swing states. McCain leads in some of these now. So, we are to expect that he is going to lose those?


18 posted on 10/27/2008 7:18:15 AM PDT by RetiredArmy (I am a true red, white and blue CONSERVATIVE! I HATE LIBERALS and Dimocrats!!!)
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To: RetiredArmy
Well, this is showing that Obama wins Fla, VA, PA, CO, Nevada, Ohio, all the swing states. McCain leads in some of these now. So, we are to expect that he is going to lose those?

Personally, I think the traders are very wrong about those states.

If I had the money, I would buy McCain futures contracts in those states.

19 posted on 10/27/2008 7:23:01 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Ingtar
I believe your map is actually quite accurate... I would add however that McCain also wins PA.... the real numbers in PA are trending strongly to McCain/Pailin... I believe you will see Murtha lose in his district and PA goes GOP
20 posted on 10/27/2008 7:58:36 AM PDT by SterlingSilver (If it walks like a duck, looks like a duck and quacks like a duck... its a duck!)
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To: Momaw Nadon

I actually started to believe this, until I saw 20% chance that McCain wins Ohio. Living in Ohio, in a pretty Blue part of the state, and knowing the support McCain has here, I’d say his chances are more like 55%.

Where is this continual garbage coming from?


21 posted on 10/27/2008 8:09:10 AM PDT by ConstantConservative
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To: Ingtar

I think that is about as optomistic as it gets. making MN a toss up state is nothing more than wishful thinking. I do believe we are ahead, but its very close. I could see a repeat of 2000.

Also, has anyone looked at the AOL straw poll lately? McCain is at 69% of the popular vote, whic has continually grown. I know this reflects a very small percent of the vote (those ho have computers, access, etc) but McCain leads in every single state, even California!!

What makes me excited about this, is that this poll is not controlled by someone calling in, its just peopel and who they say they are voting for, nothing more.

I say we win by 4 electorals, and there will be a surprise in a blue state turning red. Don’t be surprised if it’s PA either.


22 posted on 10/27/2008 8:09:12 AM PDT by ConstantConservative
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To: ConstantConservative

I paint Minnesota undecided as the polls there really change if you give the Dims a 2% edge instead of a 7 or 8% edge.


23 posted on 10/27/2008 8:33:10 AM PDT by Ingtar (Go Palin! And the white-haired guy too, I suppose. '08)
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To: Momaw Nadon

311 Obama +IA, CO, NM, VA, OH, NV

227 McCain

That’s my prediction based on current polling.


24 posted on 10/27/2008 9:02:03 AM PDT by Impy (Spellcheck hates Obama, you should too.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Now we can make money from the inaccuracies in the polls.

Intrade has Contracts for Beating the Spread on Polling Numbers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2115426/posts


25 posted on 10/27/2008 9:49:39 AM PDT by Kevmo (I love that sound and please let that baby keep on crying. ~Sarah Palin)
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To: Momaw Nadon

bttt


26 posted on 10/27/2008 10:52:44 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: Momaw Nadon
For President Barack Obama and his world wide Obamacon cult, the Upcoming Election is "Just a Mere Formality!".

So just stop this stupid and outdated technicality of an Election. Osama/bama is now our FUERHER UBER BAMA, er president of America and the entire world.


27 posted on 10/27/2008 10:54:56 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (Liberal pseudo businesses like NY Slimes, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mack, Tribune are Ponzi Schemes)
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To: Ingtar

Where did you find that map? I got a 403 error when I tried to copy the link on it.


28 posted on 10/27/2008 12:02:28 PM PDT by GOP_Raider ("I had no idea he was a Democrat because he seemed so adult." Belasarius)
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To: GOP_Raider

I built the map on 270towin.com and took a screenshot. That is my website...


29 posted on 10/27/2008 12:37:10 PM PDT by Ingtar (Go Palin! And the white-haired guy too, I suppose. '08)
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To: GOP_Raider

oops - that is my website where the screenshot is hosted.


30 posted on 10/27/2008 12:37:44 PM PDT by Ingtar (Go Palin! And the white-haired guy too, I suppose. '08)
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To: Ingtar

Wow, this site is flat out awesome! Thanks for the link, I appreciate it.


31 posted on 10/27/2008 12:47:56 PM PDT by GOP_Raider ("I had no idea he was a Democrat because he seemed so adult." Belasarius)
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