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2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/20/2008
InTrade ^ | Monday, October 20, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 10/20/2008 4:17:59 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008election; 2008polls; election; electionpresident; elections; electoral; electoralvotes; intrade; mccain; mccainpalin; obama; obamabiden; presidential; projected; votes
Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 174 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 364 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 199.27 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 10/20/2008 4:18:00 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/13/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/6/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/29/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/22/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

2 posted on 10/20/2008 4:18:22 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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3 posted on 10/20/2008 4:18:47 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Aeronaut; amigatec; angkor; annyokie; beckysueb; billva; BlessedByLiberty; bluefish; ...


If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.


4 posted on 10/20/2008 4:19:28 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

About the last thing I trust right now is the stock market.


5 posted on 10/20/2008 4:20:41 PM PDT by mlocher (USA is a sovereign nation)
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To: Momaw Nadon

More market manipulation.

Markets.

Polls.

BS.

See you on the 4th of November.


6 posted on 10/20/2008 4:22:35 PM PDT by Califreak (As seen on TV: S.A.R.A.H!-Sane Americans R Against Hussein-Obama!)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Who are the members of the Electoral College? How were they selected?


7 posted on 10/20/2008 4:22:40 PM PDT by Brian S. Fitzgerald (Counter Revolutionary for McCain/Palin)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Missouri? Colorado? North Carolina? BS.


8 posted on 10/20/2008 4:25:38 PM PDT by Harry Wurzbach (Joe The Plumber & Rep. Thaddeus McCotter are my heroes.)
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To: Harry Wurzbach

Agreed. MO ain’t going blue.


9 posted on 10/20/2008 4:27:21 PM PDT by misharu (US Congress = children without adult supervision)
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To: Califreak

I hope the Obama supporters are wrong. I bet quite a bit on McCain at an average of 25 and sent my anticipated winnings to the RNC and some 527’s.


10 posted on 10/20/2008 4:28:22 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
This is a lightly traded market and it doesn't take much money to push it one way or another. Soros and others could easily push it for Obama. The real question I have in this election is how much voter fraud there is going to be for Obama. If there is as much fraud as there appears to be then the election is over, Obama will win. Is there any way to estimate the amount of voter fraud in based on Acorn registrations, etc?
11 posted on 10/20/2008 4:29:58 PM PDT by detective
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To: Brian S. Fitzgerald
Who are the members of the Electoral College? How were they selected?

Electoral College (United States)

12 posted on 10/20/2008 4:31:52 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

I believe the WWE more than any of these “polls”. There is only one poll that counts and its on November 4th.


13 posted on 10/20/2008 5:15:12 PM PDT by The peoples DJ
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To: Momaw Nadon; Brian S. Fitzgerald

Also check out Federalist Paper No. 39 (I think it’s 39, but just to be safe, read the Federalist and Anti-Federalist Papers.)


14 posted on 10/20/2008 5:41:39 PM PDT by GOP_Raider ("I had no idea he was a Democrat because he seemed so adult." Belasarius)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Is there an actual list of Electors’ names, or are they anonymous like jurors?


15 posted on 10/20/2008 7:23:06 PM PDT by Brian S. Fitzgerald (Counter Revolutionary for McCain/Palin)
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To: Brian S. Fitzgerald
Is there an actual list of Electors’ names, or are they anonymous like jurors?

I believe that the Electors have already been chosen by their respective parties.

I do not know if there is a public list or not.

16 posted on 10/20/2008 7:29:27 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Harry Wurzbach

“Missouri? Colorado? North Carolina? BS.”

I agree Missouri isn’t likely to go blue. But have you seen the latest polls on Colorado and North Carolina?

North Carolina may even squeek out red assuming a great last ditch effort by the McCain campaign there. However, Colorado is going blue whether we like it or not.

Colorado:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html

North Carolina:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html


17 posted on 10/20/2008 7:59:01 PM PDT by jackmercer
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To: jackmercer

The polls in NC and CO are BS. Find me one without a skewed sample towards the Dems.


18 posted on 10/20/2008 8:02:41 PM PDT by Harry Wurzbach (Joe The Plumber & Rep. Thaddeus McCotter are my heroes.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Wow, it appears McCain is dead. Obama has 364 EV’s already and all the late deciders most likely will break for Obama. I have a gut feeling McCain will win no more than 10 states. It will be a very short election night for sure.I heard there was new poll in TN where Obama is beating him there now. Obama has the organization, the money and a more die hard loyal following. How can McCain even compete.


19 posted on 10/20/2008 9:32:58 PM PDT by GeeMoney ("Stop Obama now, Fight McCain later.")
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To: GeeMoney
How can McCain even compete.

We are a silent majority and the country is still center-right.

Fine, Obama squeaks out a win by capturing Virginia and Colorado, maybe.

But no way he's going to win Ohio, Missouri and Florida.

20 posted on 10/21/2008 6:14:48 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: Brian S. Fitzgerald

When you get your sample ballot in the mail the list of electors will be on it underneath their nominee. You can probably find the names online as well.


21 posted on 10/23/2008 1:14:32 PM PDT by ForbesFan
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To: ForbesFan; Momaw Nadon

thanks!


22 posted on 10/23/2008 1:19:08 PM PDT by Brian S. Fitzgerald
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